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Home >About Us >In Focus >Economy >Global Trends
Global Trends
The Impact of the "Currency Wars" on Economies
Joy Bolli, Online Publications
26.10.2010 Recent interventions led people to speak about "currency wars". Giles Keating, head of Credit Suisse Research explains what this means for currencies, economies and the financial markets.
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Joy Bolli: In laymen words, what is going on in the currency markets at the moment?
Giles Keating: On the one hand, the Federal Reserve in the US has signalled very clearly that it is moving toward quantitative easing, which means buying bonds to keep interest rates low and indirectly stimulate the stock market. That means a greater supply of dollars (is fed) into the system. That is tending to weaken the dollar. And the second thing is that a number of countries are trying resist the scale and the speed of that dollar weakening. We’re seeing some intervention and some taxes on capital inflows.
Officially the global recession is over and economies are starting to pick up again. Why would they aim at keeping their currencies weak at this point?
It is all a matter of the speed and scale of movement. Most countries don’t mind some appreciation, particularly emerging countries which are growing rapidly, They have a potential risk from inflation and want to become less reliant on exports. But as it gets too far too fast, they actually fear it could damage their export industries and become destabilizing. So, a modest move is consistent with an improving global economy. But too rapid a move cause problems.
Can you give us examples of which economies are profiting from this situation and which currencies are the most affected?
What we’ve seen over the last month is virtually all major currencies moving up against the dollar. We saw the euro and the Swiss franc in Europe. The yen is being strong. In the emerging markets, most of the major currencies including the Chinese renminbi, the Brazilian real and many others have moved up.
Although it’s been attractive for investors involved in those currencies, the pace has triggered some concern among policy makers in the affected countries. They feel that this very rapid move up could damage their economies. In just the last few days before this interview, we’ve seen the dollar regain a little bit of ground. That’s a relief to everybody. Even if the long-term trend in those currencies is upward, the move we’ve just seen was a bit too fast.
There are discussions about whether monetary unions could be a solution to the problem. But the euro and the dollar have both proven that even monetary unions face serious challenges. Would a monetary union – let’s say in Asia – make sense?
A literal monetary union is not on the cards. There are far too many political and economic barriers to that. But what might be possible – and some world leaders are trying to look to this at the G-20 meeting that’s coming up in early November - is to look to some loose agreement, which would probably involve that the US would be doing a degree of monetary stimulus. They would do that in a measured way so it didn’t create too much short-term pressure.
Meanwhile, from the point of view of the emerging currencies, they would be looking to a gradual move up of not just months, but of a number of years. This makes sense from an economic development point of view. It fits with the idea of rebalancing to less reliance on exports and more reliance on domestic demand in the emerging markets. A kind of loose agreement of that type is possible, but it does require real coordination effort among the international community.
Where are the opportunities for investors in this environment and what must they bear in mind?
We feel that this is rather a positive environment for stock markets. The feeling here is that the effect of the quantitative easing in the US really is designed to push up stock markets and credit markets. That’s the way that process works: By making capital cheaper and by making financial assets less attractive to people, so they want to go out and spend.
Credit Suisse thinks investors should be riding that wave upward. And meanwhile there are potential opportunities in currencies. The dollar regaining a bit of ground could be an interesting entry opportunity into some currencies, where the longer-term trend, particularly in the emerging markets, is still upwards.
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quarta-feira, 27 de outubro de 2010
domingo, 24 de outubro de 2010
opinião do Nooresh
do site nooreshtech.co.in
Dow Jones and Hang Seng – Can they see a 10% jump in next few months!!
by nooresh on October 20, 2010,23
The last update i had made on Global Indices was a few weeks back on September 17 – http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2010/09/global-indices-dow-jones-ftse-cac-dax-and-hang-seng-on-verge-of-breakouts-did-sensex-jump-the-gun.html
Since then Dow Jones has moved from 10500 to 11200 the target seen.
Hang Seng has moved from 21.8k to 23.8k giving a clean jump of 2000 points.
Also all the other Global Indices have given a considerably nice upmove.
But the current chart formation suggests we may see a big move in coming months the same way as i expect Sensex to do 22.5k after the current correction.
Although what needs to be seen is whether we see a minor correction in global indices before they start the next big move ! which could be secular.
Dow Jones:
In my major update on Dow Jones had mentioned about 11200-11300 being the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and the index should pause and top out around that zone.
Dow then corrected to 9600 levels with a butter finger etc.
http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2010/04/dow-jones-should-pause-at-11200-crude-slipping-from-trendline-resistance.html
Currently the formation is more like a cup and handle which ideally gives a target of 13k also. But one could expect after crossing 11300 Dow should do a target of 12200 which is the next fibonacci retracement.
Although dips to 10700-10750 is possible before the next big move.
Will have a look on it when it crosses 11300 or comes down to test 10700.
Dow12k thumb Dow Jones and Hang Seng Can they see a 10% jump in next few months!!
Hang Seng:
Before looking into the current scenario one can have a look into the previous chart which suggested a breakout at 21.8k
http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/HangSeng.png
Currently the index has crossed the year highs with ease which clearly suggests a test of 26500 over the next few month. A retest of the last high breakout around 23k is possible.
Yet again it looks like a cup and handle which gives a target of 27k.
Also here the next fibonacci retracement comes at 26k-26.5k.
HangSeng26k thumb Dow Jones and Hang Seng Can they see a 10% jump in next few months!!
Bottomline:
All the things point to a possible major upmove in global indices namely – Hang seng, Sensex, Dow Jones which matter to us but the next few weeks could be tricky as ideally all of them need a little dip before they start the long journey which could be secular in nature.
We will review the indices as and when
Sensex comes closer to 19600/19000 or crosses 21000
Dow Jones comes closer to 10700 or crosses 11300
Hang Seng if comes near to 23000.
All in all its a time to look out for buying opportunities on major declines with a good risk-reward or wait for a confirmation of crossover above recent highs. Investors should continue to remain invested and ride !
There is one thing which can be definitely said is the next few months and year to come is going to be much more exciting with lots of trading and investing opportunities.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SCHEDULE
After a break of sessions outside Mumbai we are back with a string of training programs to be conducted in your city.
MUMBAI – OCTOBER 23- 24 ( book seats at the earliest as limited batch size )
HYDERABAD – OCTOBER 30-31 ( few seats left)
MANGALORE – NOVEMBER 13-14
AHMEDABAD – NOVEMBER 20-21
For more details regarding group discounts or to organize a session in your city get in touch with our Technical Training Head – Kazim – 09821237002
Regards,
Nooresh
Dow Jones and Hang Seng – Can they see a 10% jump in next few months!!
by nooresh on October 20, 2010,23
The last update i had made on Global Indices was a few weeks back on September 17 – http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2010/09/global-indices-dow-jones-ftse-cac-dax-and-hang-seng-on-verge-of-breakouts-did-sensex-jump-the-gun.html
Since then Dow Jones has moved from 10500 to 11200 the target seen.
Hang Seng has moved from 21.8k to 23.8k giving a clean jump of 2000 points.
Also all the other Global Indices have given a considerably nice upmove.
But the current chart formation suggests we may see a big move in coming months the same way as i expect Sensex to do 22.5k after the current correction.
Although what needs to be seen is whether we see a minor correction in global indices before they start the next big move ! which could be secular.
Dow Jones:
In my major update on Dow Jones had mentioned about 11200-11300 being the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and the index should pause and top out around that zone.
Dow then corrected to 9600 levels with a butter finger etc.
http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2010/04/dow-jones-should-pause-at-11200-crude-slipping-from-trendline-resistance.html
Currently the formation is more like a cup and handle which ideally gives a target of 13k also. But one could expect after crossing 11300 Dow should do a target of 12200 which is the next fibonacci retracement.
Although dips to 10700-10750 is possible before the next big move.
Will have a look on it when it crosses 11300 or comes down to test 10700.
Dow12k thumb Dow Jones and Hang Seng Can they see a 10% jump in next few months!!
Hang Seng:
Before looking into the current scenario one can have a look into the previous chart which suggested a breakout at 21.8k
http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/HangSeng.png
Currently the index has crossed the year highs with ease which clearly suggests a test of 26500 over the next few month. A retest of the last high breakout around 23k is possible.
Yet again it looks like a cup and handle which gives a target of 27k.
Also here the next fibonacci retracement comes at 26k-26.5k.
HangSeng26k thumb Dow Jones and Hang Seng Can they see a 10% jump in next few months!!
Bottomline:
All the things point to a possible major upmove in global indices namely – Hang seng, Sensex, Dow Jones which matter to us but the next few weeks could be tricky as ideally all of them need a little dip before they start the long journey which could be secular in nature.
We will review the indices as and when
Sensex comes closer to 19600/19000 or crosses 21000
Dow Jones comes closer to 10700 or crosses 11300
Hang Seng if comes near to 23000.
All in all its a time to look out for buying opportunities on major declines with a good risk-reward or wait for a confirmation of crossover above recent highs. Investors should continue to remain invested and ride !
There is one thing which can be definitely said is the next few months and year to come is going to be much more exciting with lots of trading and investing opportunities.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SCHEDULE
After a break of sessions outside Mumbai we are back with a string of training programs to be conducted in your city.
MUMBAI – OCTOBER 23- 24 ( book seats at the earliest as limited batch size )
HYDERABAD – OCTOBER 30-31 ( few seats left)
MANGALORE – NOVEMBER 13-14
AHMEDABAD – NOVEMBER 20-21
For more details regarding group discounts or to organize a session in your city get in touch with our Technical Training Head – Kazim – 09821237002
Regards,
Nooresh
segunda-feira, 18 de outubro de 2010
sobre marcas na china
texto do credit suisse:
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Home >About Us >Media >Publications >bulletin >bulletin online >Content >2010 >4/10 - Consumption
4/10 - Consumption
China's Great Thirst for Luxury
Martin Regnet, Journalist
18.10.2010 In Shanghai, the People's Republic of China has long since transformed itself into an opulent consumer paradise. For the luxury brands of the world, China is now a veritable gold mine. That's because the Chinese, more image-aware and individualistic than ever before, have a weakness for brand products.
Related Links:
Chinese Consumers Are Craving for Luxury Goods
Sunday in Shanghai. Ultramodern architecture and the brands of the world sit comfortably side by side in the Super Brand Mall. On a Sunday afternoon, people elsewhere might be lazily reading a book or going for a walk. But in the glamorous malls of Shanghai, it's all about shopping. Shortly after 1 p.m., the first wave of consumers move on from their lunch to this retailing temple, where shops stay open until 9 p.m. Shopping in China is very much a family experience. Indeed, for a growing number of fashionistas, shopping is actually a leisure pursuit to which the weekend is dedicated. The idea of going "gòuwù" – shopping – alone is alien to the Chinese. Material fortune is something to be shared with relatives and friends.
Splash Out on That Pricey Nokia, Pinch Pennies on Veggies
Although China has a per capita income of only around 6,600 US dollars a year, even those on only a modest income will not hesitate to splash out on high-end products. Indulging in luxury is something that is found across all strata of urban society. It is not uncommon for a taxi driver who gets by on fairly limited earnings of 4,000 yuan (around 700 dollars) a month to nonetheless possess the very latest Nokia mobile phone in the upper price segment. Consumption is done differently here, as is thrift – which might manifest itself in day-to-day haggling with vegetable traders, for example.
Shopping is writ large in Shanghai like in no other Chinese city. Here the country is already experiencing what will probably become reality all over the country in 10 years' time: a consumer boom. While Beijing has a reputation for rather conservative political lobbying and Guangzhou has turned itself into the leading center of industrial production, Shanghai has used the Chinese economic miracle to establish itself at the forefront of consumerism. It is from Shanghai that almost all the retail industry's global players have driven forward their Chinese expansion strategies. And nor do they look out of place – every imaginable international brand looks like it belongs in this metropolis on the Huangpu River, a city that is also home to the tallest buildings in China, the Chinese stock exchange, the world's second-largest port, two airports, a Formula One race circuit and Expo 2010.
Successful? Then Show It!
For the rich to flaunt their wealth is not vulgar but chic in China. This is readily confirmed by Jim Siano, CEO Asia Pacific of the luxury brand Montblanc: "Our clients are often entrepreneurs or company executives who are typically better educated than most of their fellow countrymen. But Chinese consumers generally have come a long way." While high prices may conflict with China's reputation as a country producing cheap goods, they certainly don't act as a bar to the Chinese consumer. Quite the opposite: "In the last 20 years, Chinese consumers have spent a significant proportion of their monthly income on luxury products. High-quality luxury goods are truly prized in China," observes Siano, a New Yorker by birth who has been scrutinizing the Chinese consumer intensively for the last two decades. Siano is impressed by the level of detail that the Chinese consumer will go to before purchasing a brand product: "For the Chinese, the origin of a product is very important, as is the brand and its history. They'll do lots of research in order to learn more about the background – what a name stands for, where the strengths of a product lie – and only then will they make their buying decision."
The Rich Get Much Richer
An increasing number of Chinese can easily afford luxury articles like the watches, pens and leather goods that are sold by Montblanc in its 95 Chinese stores. The richest 10 percent of households in this country have experienced a quantum leap in wealth over the last few years. On average they currently earn 255 percent more than they did in 2005, and now account for more than 35 percent of the total income of all Chinese households, although it is also true that almost all Chinese are better off than they were a few years ago. For the world's luxury brands, the affluent Chinese represent a target group that is now increasingly exercising a decisive influence on the global market for high-end consumer goods. Jim Siano reaffirms the point: "Our store in Shanghai's CITIC Square has been the largest of any of our stores in the world since it was opened in 2008. However, we are now planning to increase the size of this outlet threefold." An important factor for brand consumers is also the choice of location: "The Chinese luxury goods market is seeing a major drive toward much larger stores at leading retail locations. I'm expecting much more competition in the retail industry, and between operators of shopping malls as well as between brands."
Even the financial situation of Chinese in the lower income brackets is undergoing "moderate growth." The poorest 20 percent now earn more than half as much again as they did in 2005. Those in the middle income brackets have seen their earnings rise by 98 percent over the same period, i.e. virtually doubling.
Little Emperors to Leave Their Mark on Consumption Patterns
This trend is likely to continue, as the savings rate in China is falling rapidly. Whereas consumers were still saving 26 percent of their income back in 2004, the proportion of income set aside had declined to just 12 percent in 2009, as established by the Consumer Survey of Credit Suisse.
Consumption has a major future in China: As a result of the birth control policy introduced in 1980, the vast majority of Chinese under the age of 30 are single children. The Chinese born in the 1980s and 1990s grew up as the focal point of attention for their family, and are now accordingly being targeted by brand producers as high-spending consumers with serious purchasing power. This generation of "Little Emperors" – as they are termed in Chinese – has enjoyed the strongest growth in income over the last three years, a position they will maintain over the next three years too.
Mobility and Urbanization as Growth Drivers
China's real estate market is currently one of the world's "hottest," particularly in high-earning cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. One of the major drivers of the Chinese economic boom is the procurement and fitting-out of residential property. Urbanization is proceeding at breakneck speed in Zhongguo, or the "Middle Kingdom," as the Chinese frequently term their own country: Credit Suisse is anticipating an annual growth rate in urbanization of 0.8 percent. This means that the 46 percent of Chinese who lived in urban areas in 2009 will rise to 60 percent by 2030. Dramatic growth is expected in the medium-sized cities of central and western China in particular. In other words, some 190 million new Chinese urban residents will have to be provided for in terms of both infrastructure and residential space. Analysts at Credit Suisse are convinced that it is precisely these "new urban dwellers" who will drive the boom in consumption. This also goes hand in hand with the Chinese government's goal of increasing domestic demand so as to reduce the country's dependency on exports.
The result? Another massive surge in Chinese consumption. Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse, expects this to undergo a quantum leap from 1.7 trillion dollars this year to 15.9 trillion dollars by 2020. This would see China increase its proportion of global consumption from 5.2 percent in 2009 to 23.1 percent in 2020, thereby leapfrogging the US to become the world's largest consumer market.
Audi Selling More New Cars in China Than in Germany
In a number of areas, the future is already very much in evidence. For example, China's automotive market is already the world's largest in terms of numbers of units. Since 2004, the proportion of households owning a car has risen from 12 to 28 percent, i.e. more than doubling. But this proportion is set to rise further. In the Credit Suisse Consumer Survey 2009, around 35 percent of households responded that they were either "definitely" or "probably" going to buy a new car within the next three years. For foreign automotive manufacturers, China is now the ultimate growth market, something that applies to German car brands above all. In the first five months of this year, Volkswagen Group China sold some 778,000 vehicles, a 48 percent rise on the record year of 2009. Plans for the construction of the tenth Volkswagen factory in the Middle Kingdom – in the city of Foshan in the Pearl River Delta – are already at an advanced stage. In the first half of 2010, Audi sold around 109,800 cars in China, 2,000 more than in its domestic market. BMW has enjoyed sales growth of some 100 percent in the first six months of this year. German manufacturers will gladly meet special requests of their Chinese customers, for example their preference for a significantly elongated wheelbase. Upmarket brands such as Porsche are likewise increasingly focusing on their Chinese customer base: In 2009, the company chose to unveil its Panamera model at Auto China in Shanghai.
Domestic Brands Catching Up
Similar trends are also apparent in the markets for flat-screen televisions and notebook PCs. Consumer interest in both products has risen continuously over the last few years. Where the former is concerned, Chinese consumers are latching on to the high-end segment with screens of between 37 and 45 inches, with a strong trend toward higher specification evident here too.
Although many Chinese brands have become increasingly accepted and their market share has risen, particularly in the last two years, international brands remain exceptionally popular: In particular, the great advantage held by foreign brands has been maintained in the area of technologically sophisticated products and luxury goods. Where fast-moving consumer goods such as food, drink and cosmetic products are concerned, foreign and domestic manufacturers appear to be running neck and neck. However, Chinese companies have a much stronger position in sectors such as the Internet and travel, a situation partly explained by the market barriers faced by new entrants.
Rural Population Participating in Growth to Only a Limited Degree
The boom also has its negative aspects. Today's Chinese consumers show much less interest in issues such as sustainability and social responsibility than their Western counterparts. When it comes to energy efficiency in manufacturing, China still lags far behind international standards. Water and air pollution levels are often considerable. The rural population as well as the western, northeastern and central provinces of the country are participating in this growth to only a limited degree. Within the developing regions, too, the gulf between rich and poor can often be immense.
Nor is the rest of the world immune to the negative aspects of the Chinese consumer boom. China's hunger for raw materials is already resulting in a number of market distortions. The export of valuable ground resources – such as "rare earths," for example, which are particularly important in high-technology industries – has recently been restricted. This is having a dislocating impact on entire industry sectors. China also now occupies a leading position as an emitter of greenhouse gases. Last but not least, China continues to be reproached for a currency manipulation policy that critics claim gives the country an unfair competitive advantage.
These problems notwithstanding, most Western manufacturers, investors and employers are hoping that the surge in Chinese consumption will maintain its strong momentum, and that the escalators of consumer temples such as the Super Brand Mall in Shanghai will remain packed with shopaholics. And not just on Sunday afternoons.
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Home >About Us >Media >Publications >bulletin >bulletin online >Content >2010 >4/10 - Consumption
4/10 - Consumption
China's Great Thirst for Luxury
Martin Regnet, Journalist
18.10.2010 In Shanghai, the People's Republic of China has long since transformed itself into an opulent consumer paradise. For the luxury brands of the world, China is now a veritable gold mine. That's because the Chinese, more image-aware and individualistic than ever before, have a weakness for brand products.
Related Links:
Chinese Consumers Are Craving for Luxury Goods
Sunday in Shanghai. Ultramodern architecture and the brands of the world sit comfortably side by side in the Super Brand Mall. On a Sunday afternoon, people elsewhere might be lazily reading a book or going for a walk. But in the glamorous malls of Shanghai, it's all about shopping. Shortly after 1 p.m., the first wave of consumers move on from their lunch to this retailing temple, where shops stay open until 9 p.m. Shopping in China is very much a family experience. Indeed, for a growing number of fashionistas, shopping is actually a leisure pursuit to which the weekend is dedicated. The idea of going "gòuwù" – shopping – alone is alien to the Chinese. Material fortune is something to be shared with relatives and friends.
Splash Out on That Pricey Nokia, Pinch Pennies on Veggies
Although China has a per capita income of only around 6,600 US dollars a year, even those on only a modest income will not hesitate to splash out on high-end products. Indulging in luxury is something that is found across all strata of urban society. It is not uncommon for a taxi driver who gets by on fairly limited earnings of 4,000 yuan (around 700 dollars) a month to nonetheless possess the very latest Nokia mobile phone in the upper price segment. Consumption is done differently here, as is thrift – which might manifest itself in day-to-day haggling with vegetable traders, for example.
Shopping is writ large in Shanghai like in no other Chinese city. Here the country is already experiencing what will probably become reality all over the country in 10 years' time: a consumer boom. While Beijing has a reputation for rather conservative political lobbying and Guangzhou has turned itself into the leading center of industrial production, Shanghai has used the Chinese economic miracle to establish itself at the forefront of consumerism. It is from Shanghai that almost all the retail industry's global players have driven forward their Chinese expansion strategies. And nor do they look out of place – every imaginable international brand looks like it belongs in this metropolis on the Huangpu River, a city that is also home to the tallest buildings in China, the Chinese stock exchange, the world's second-largest port, two airports, a Formula One race circuit and Expo 2010.
Successful? Then Show It!
For the rich to flaunt their wealth is not vulgar but chic in China. This is readily confirmed by Jim Siano, CEO Asia Pacific of the luxury brand Montblanc: "Our clients are often entrepreneurs or company executives who are typically better educated than most of their fellow countrymen. But Chinese consumers generally have come a long way." While high prices may conflict with China's reputation as a country producing cheap goods, they certainly don't act as a bar to the Chinese consumer. Quite the opposite: "In the last 20 years, Chinese consumers have spent a significant proportion of their monthly income on luxury products. High-quality luxury goods are truly prized in China," observes Siano, a New Yorker by birth who has been scrutinizing the Chinese consumer intensively for the last two decades. Siano is impressed by the level of detail that the Chinese consumer will go to before purchasing a brand product: "For the Chinese, the origin of a product is very important, as is the brand and its history. They'll do lots of research in order to learn more about the background – what a name stands for, where the strengths of a product lie – and only then will they make their buying decision."
The Rich Get Much Richer
An increasing number of Chinese can easily afford luxury articles like the watches, pens and leather goods that are sold by Montblanc in its 95 Chinese stores. The richest 10 percent of households in this country have experienced a quantum leap in wealth over the last few years. On average they currently earn 255 percent more than they did in 2005, and now account for more than 35 percent of the total income of all Chinese households, although it is also true that almost all Chinese are better off than they were a few years ago. For the world's luxury brands, the affluent Chinese represent a target group that is now increasingly exercising a decisive influence on the global market for high-end consumer goods. Jim Siano reaffirms the point: "Our store in Shanghai's CITIC Square has been the largest of any of our stores in the world since it was opened in 2008. However, we are now planning to increase the size of this outlet threefold." An important factor for brand consumers is also the choice of location: "The Chinese luxury goods market is seeing a major drive toward much larger stores at leading retail locations. I'm expecting much more competition in the retail industry, and between operators of shopping malls as well as between brands."
Even the financial situation of Chinese in the lower income brackets is undergoing "moderate growth." The poorest 20 percent now earn more than half as much again as they did in 2005. Those in the middle income brackets have seen their earnings rise by 98 percent over the same period, i.e. virtually doubling.
Little Emperors to Leave Their Mark on Consumption Patterns
This trend is likely to continue, as the savings rate in China is falling rapidly. Whereas consumers were still saving 26 percent of their income back in 2004, the proportion of income set aside had declined to just 12 percent in 2009, as established by the Consumer Survey of Credit Suisse.
Consumption has a major future in China: As a result of the birth control policy introduced in 1980, the vast majority of Chinese under the age of 30 are single children. The Chinese born in the 1980s and 1990s grew up as the focal point of attention for their family, and are now accordingly being targeted by brand producers as high-spending consumers with serious purchasing power. This generation of "Little Emperors" – as they are termed in Chinese – has enjoyed the strongest growth in income over the last three years, a position they will maintain over the next three years too.
Mobility and Urbanization as Growth Drivers
China's real estate market is currently one of the world's "hottest," particularly in high-earning cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. One of the major drivers of the Chinese economic boom is the procurement and fitting-out of residential property. Urbanization is proceeding at breakneck speed in Zhongguo, or the "Middle Kingdom," as the Chinese frequently term their own country: Credit Suisse is anticipating an annual growth rate in urbanization of 0.8 percent. This means that the 46 percent of Chinese who lived in urban areas in 2009 will rise to 60 percent by 2030. Dramatic growth is expected in the medium-sized cities of central and western China in particular. In other words, some 190 million new Chinese urban residents will have to be provided for in terms of both infrastructure and residential space. Analysts at Credit Suisse are convinced that it is precisely these "new urban dwellers" who will drive the boom in consumption. This also goes hand in hand with the Chinese government's goal of increasing domestic demand so as to reduce the country's dependency on exports.
The result? Another massive surge in Chinese consumption. Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse, expects this to undergo a quantum leap from 1.7 trillion dollars this year to 15.9 trillion dollars by 2020. This would see China increase its proportion of global consumption from 5.2 percent in 2009 to 23.1 percent in 2020, thereby leapfrogging the US to become the world's largest consumer market.
Audi Selling More New Cars in China Than in Germany
In a number of areas, the future is already very much in evidence. For example, China's automotive market is already the world's largest in terms of numbers of units. Since 2004, the proportion of households owning a car has risen from 12 to 28 percent, i.e. more than doubling. But this proportion is set to rise further. In the Credit Suisse Consumer Survey 2009, around 35 percent of households responded that they were either "definitely" or "probably" going to buy a new car within the next three years. For foreign automotive manufacturers, China is now the ultimate growth market, something that applies to German car brands above all. In the first five months of this year, Volkswagen Group China sold some 778,000 vehicles, a 48 percent rise on the record year of 2009. Plans for the construction of the tenth Volkswagen factory in the Middle Kingdom – in the city of Foshan in the Pearl River Delta – are already at an advanced stage. In the first half of 2010, Audi sold around 109,800 cars in China, 2,000 more than in its domestic market. BMW has enjoyed sales growth of some 100 percent in the first six months of this year. German manufacturers will gladly meet special requests of their Chinese customers, for example their preference for a significantly elongated wheelbase. Upmarket brands such as Porsche are likewise increasingly focusing on their Chinese customer base: In 2009, the company chose to unveil its Panamera model at Auto China in Shanghai.
Domestic Brands Catching Up
Similar trends are also apparent in the markets for flat-screen televisions and notebook PCs. Consumer interest in both products has risen continuously over the last few years. Where the former is concerned, Chinese consumers are latching on to the high-end segment with screens of between 37 and 45 inches, with a strong trend toward higher specification evident here too.
Although many Chinese brands have become increasingly accepted and their market share has risen, particularly in the last two years, international brands remain exceptionally popular: In particular, the great advantage held by foreign brands has been maintained in the area of technologically sophisticated products and luxury goods. Where fast-moving consumer goods such as food, drink and cosmetic products are concerned, foreign and domestic manufacturers appear to be running neck and neck. However, Chinese companies have a much stronger position in sectors such as the Internet and travel, a situation partly explained by the market barriers faced by new entrants.
Rural Population Participating in Growth to Only a Limited Degree
The boom also has its negative aspects. Today's Chinese consumers show much less interest in issues such as sustainability and social responsibility than their Western counterparts. When it comes to energy efficiency in manufacturing, China still lags far behind international standards. Water and air pollution levels are often considerable. The rural population as well as the western, northeastern and central provinces of the country are participating in this growth to only a limited degree. Within the developing regions, too, the gulf between rich and poor can often be immense.
Nor is the rest of the world immune to the negative aspects of the Chinese consumer boom. China's hunger for raw materials is already resulting in a number of market distortions. The export of valuable ground resources – such as "rare earths," for example, which are particularly important in high-technology industries – has recently been restricted. This is having a dislocating impact on entire industry sectors. China also now occupies a leading position as an emitter of greenhouse gases. Last but not least, China continues to be reproached for a currency manipulation policy that critics claim gives the country an unfair competitive advantage.
These problems notwithstanding, most Western manufacturers, investors and employers are hoping that the surge in Chinese consumption will maintain its strong momentum, and that the escalators of consumer temples such as the Super Brand Mall in Shanghai will remain packed with shopaholics. And not just on Sunday afternoons.
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domingo, 17 de outubro de 2010
Krugman sobre hipotecas
copiado do advfn:
O lamaçal das hipotecas: uma bagunça que pode gerar outra crise financeira
Paul Krugman
As autoridades norte-americanas costumavam dar sermões a outros países a respeito dos fracassos econômicos destes e aconselhar que eles imitassem o modelo dos Estados Unidos. A crise financeira asiática do final da década de noventa, em particular, fez com que os norte-americanos dessem muitas lições de moral.
Assim, em 2000, Lawrence Summers, o então secretário do Tesouro dos Estados Unidos, declarou que o segredo para se evitar crises financeiras residia em “bancos bem capitalizados e supervisionados, governança corporativa eficiente e códigos relativos a falências, bem como meios convincentes de fazer com que contratos sejam respeitados”. A dedução óbvia é que todas essas eram qualidades das quais os asiáticos careciam - mas que nós tínhamos.
Os escândalos de contabilidade na Enron e na WorldCom acabaram com o mito da governança corporativa eficiente. Atualmente, se alguém falar que os nossos bancos estavam bem capitalizados e supervisionados, todos acharão que trata-se de uma piada de mau gosto. E agora a bagunça das hipotecas está contradizendo as alegações de que nós contamos com um sistema eficaz para garantir o cumprimento de contratos – na verdade, a questão é saber se a nossa economia é governada por algum tipo de regra legal.
A história até o momento é a seguinte: um aquecimento épico do setor imobiliário e um persistentemente elevado índice de desemprego provocaram uma onda de calotes epidêmica, quando milhões de proprietários de residências passaram a atrasar as prestações das suas hipotecas. Assim sendo, as companhias que coletam pagamentos para os donos de hipotecas passaram a cancelar muitos contratos, confiscando diversas propriedades residenciais.
Mas será que elas têm de fato o direito de sequestrar essas casas? Histórias de horror têm se proliferado, como o caso daquele homem da Flórida cuja casa foi confiscada ainda que ele não tivesse nenhuma hipoteca. E o mais significativo é que certas pessoas estão ignorando a lei.
Os tribunais têm aprovado sequestros de imóveis sem exigir que os cobradores apresentem documentação apropriada; em vez disso, eles têm se baseado em declarações que garantem que os papéis estão em ordem. E essas garantias são com frequências prestadas por “assinantes-robôs”, ou funcionários de pouca importância hierárquica que não sabem se as declarações apresentadas são de fato verdadeiras.
Agora uma verdade terrível está ficando evidente: em muitos casos, não existe documentação nenhuma. No frenesi da bolha, muitos empréstimos para compra de imóveis foram feitos por companhias inescrupulosas que procuram gerar o maior volume possível de negócios. Essas empresas tinham a obrigação legal de obter e guardar as notas de hipoteca que especificassem as obrigações dos mutuários. Mas agora está claro que tais detalhes foram frequentemente negligenciados. E isso significa que muitos sequestros de residências que estão ocorrendo no momento são, na verdade, ilegais.
Isso é péssimo. Até porque é quase certo que um número significativo de mutuários está sendo fraudado – tendo que pagar taxas que eles na verdade não devem, e sendo declarados insolventes quando, segundo os termos dos seus contratos de empréstimo, não é essa a situação real.
Além disso, se essas empresas são incapazes de apresentar provas de que de fato são donas das hipotecas, os patrocinadores de tais companhias enfrentarão processos judiciais movidos pelos investidores que compraram os títulos de resgate da dívida – títulos que, atualmente, muitas vezes valem apenas uma pequena fração do seu valor real.
E quem são esses patrocinadores? Grandes instituições financeiras – as mesmas instituições que foram supostamente salvas da falência por programas governamentais no ano passado. Assim, a bagunça das hipotecas ameaça provocar uma outra crise financeira.
O que pode ser feito?
A resposta do governo Obama tem sido opor-se a qualquer ação que possa irritar os bancos, como uma moratória temporária dos sequestros de imóveis residenciais enquanto algumas questão são resolvidas. Em vez disso, o governo está pedindo aos bancos, de forma muita educada, que se comportem melhor. Isso funcionou muito bem no passado, não é verdade?
A resposta da direita é, no entanto, ainda pior. Os republicanos no congresso não estão se manifestando muito, mas os comentaristas conservadores como os da página de editorial do “Wall Street Journal” têm afirmado que a falta de documentos é um detalhe sem importância. De fato, eles afirmam que se um banco diz que é dono da casa de um determinado indivíduo, nós devemos acreditar automaticamente na palavra da instituição financeira.
Para mim, isso faz lembrar a época em que os membros da nobreza tinham liberdade para se apossarem do que quisessem, sabendo que os camponeses não tinham voz nos tribunais. Mas é aí que eu suspeito que algumas pessoas veem aquela época como “os bons e velhos dias”.
O que deveria estar acontecendo? Os excessos dos anos da bolha criaram um lamaçal moral, no qual os direitos de propriedade são mal definidos porque ninguém possui documentação apropriada. E no qual não existe nenhum direito claro de propriedade; o trabalho de criar tais direitos cabe ao governo.
Isso não será fácil, mas há algumas boas ideias circulando em relação ao problema. Por exemplo, o Centro para o Progresso Americano propôs que seja delegado a conselheiros de hipotecas e outras entidades públicas o poder de modificar diretamente os empréstimos problemáticos, de forma que as suas avaliações sejam o padrão a se seguir a menos que sejam contestadas pelos cobradores de hipotecas. Isso contribuiria bastante para deixar as coisas mais claras e ajudar a nos tirar desse lamaçal.
Uma coisa é certa: o que estamos fazendo agora não está funcionando. E fingir que tudo está bem não convencerá ninguém.
O lamaçal das hipotecas: uma bagunça que pode gerar outra crise financeira
Paul Krugman
As autoridades norte-americanas costumavam dar sermões a outros países a respeito dos fracassos econômicos destes e aconselhar que eles imitassem o modelo dos Estados Unidos. A crise financeira asiática do final da década de noventa, em particular, fez com que os norte-americanos dessem muitas lições de moral.
Assim, em 2000, Lawrence Summers, o então secretário do Tesouro dos Estados Unidos, declarou que o segredo para se evitar crises financeiras residia em “bancos bem capitalizados e supervisionados, governança corporativa eficiente e códigos relativos a falências, bem como meios convincentes de fazer com que contratos sejam respeitados”. A dedução óbvia é que todas essas eram qualidades das quais os asiáticos careciam - mas que nós tínhamos.
Os escândalos de contabilidade na Enron e na WorldCom acabaram com o mito da governança corporativa eficiente. Atualmente, se alguém falar que os nossos bancos estavam bem capitalizados e supervisionados, todos acharão que trata-se de uma piada de mau gosto. E agora a bagunça das hipotecas está contradizendo as alegações de que nós contamos com um sistema eficaz para garantir o cumprimento de contratos – na verdade, a questão é saber se a nossa economia é governada por algum tipo de regra legal.
A história até o momento é a seguinte: um aquecimento épico do setor imobiliário e um persistentemente elevado índice de desemprego provocaram uma onda de calotes epidêmica, quando milhões de proprietários de residências passaram a atrasar as prestações das suas hipotecas. Assim sendo, as companhias que coletam pagamentos para os donos de hipotecas passaram a cancelar muitos contratos, confiscando diversas propriedades residenciais.
Mas será que elas têm de fato o direito de sequestrar essas casas? Histórias de horror têm se proliferado, como o caso daquele homem da Flórida cuja casa foi confiscada ainda que ele não tivesse nenhuma hipoteca. E o mais significativo é que certas pessoas estão ignorando a lei.
Os tribunais têm aprovado sequestros de imóveis sem exigir que os cobradores apresentem documentação apropriada; em vez disso, eles têm se baseado em declarações que garantem que os papéis estão em ordem. E essas garantias são com frequências prestadas por “assinantes-robôs”, ou funcionários de pouca importância hierárquica que não sabem se as declarações apresentadas são de fato verdadeiras.
Agora uma verdade terrível está ficando evidente: em muitos casos, não existe documentação nenhuma. No frenesi da bolha, muitos empréstimos para compra de imóveis foram feitos por companhias inescrupulosas que procuram gerar o maior volume possível de negócios. Essas empresas tinham a obrigação legal de obter e guardar as notas de hipoteca que especificassem as obrigações dos mutuários. Mas agora está claro que tais detalhes foram frequentemente negligenciados. E isso significa que muitos sequestros de residências que estão ocorrendo no momento são, na verdade, ilegais.
Isso é péssimo. Até porque é quase certo que um número significativo de mutuários está sendo fraudado – tendo que pagar taxas que eles na verdade não devem, e sendo declarados insolventes quando, segundo os termos dos seus contratos de empréstimo, não é essa a situação real.
Além disso, se essas empresas são incapazes de apresentar provas de que de fato são donas das hipotecas, os patrocinadores de tais companhias enfrentarão processos judiciais movidos pelos investidores que compraram os títulos de resgate da dívida – títulos que, atualmente, muitas vezes valem apenas uma pequena fração do seu valor real.
E quem são esses patrocinadores? Grandes instituições financeiras – as mesmas instituições que foram supostamente salvas da falência por programas governamentais no ano passado. Assim, a bagunça das hipotecas ameaça provocar uma outra crise financeira.
O que pode ser feito?
A resposta do governo Obama tem sido opor-se a qualquer ação que possa irritar os bancos, como uma moratória temporária dos sequestros de imóveis residenciais enquanto algumas questão são resolvidas. Em vez disso, o governo está pedindo aos bancos, de forma muita educada, que se comportem melhor. Isso funcionou muito bem no passado, não é verdade?
A resposta da direita é, no entanto, ainda pior. Os republicanos no congresso não estão se manifestando muito, mas os comentaristas conservadores como os da página de editorial do “Wall Street Journal” têm afirmado que a falta de documentos é um detalhe sem importância. De fato, eles afirmam que se um banco diz que é dono da casa de um determinado indivíduo, nós devemos acreditar automaticamente na palavra da instituição financeira.
Para mim, isso faz lembrar a época em que os membros da nobreza tinham liberdade para se apossarem do que quisessem, sabendo que os camponeses não tinham voz nos tribunais. Mas é aí que eu suspeito que algumas pessoas veem aquela época como “os bons e velhos dias”.
O que deveria estar acontecendo? Os excessos dos anos da bolha criaram um lamaçal moral, no qual os direitos de propriedade são mal definidos porque ninguém possui documentação apropriada. E no qual não existe nenhum direito claro de propriedade; o trabalho de criar tais direitos cabe ao governo.
Isso não será fácil, mas há algumas boas ideias circulando em relação ao problema. Por exemplo, o Centro para o Progresso Americano propôs que seja delegado a conselheiros de hipotecas e outras entidades públicas o poder de modificar diretamente os empréstimos problemáticos, de forma que as suas avaliações sejam o padrão a se seguir a menos que sejam contestadas pelos cobradores de hipotecas. Isso contribuiria bastante para deixar as coisas mais claras e ajudar a nos tirar desse lamaçal.
Uma coisa é certa: o que estamos fazendo agora não está funcionando. E fingir que tudo está bem não convencerá ninguém.
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