winnipeg free press: ferro

sobre ferro:
Consolidated Thompson could double production at Bloom Lake mine: CEO

By: Kristine Owram, THE CANADIAN PRESS

25/01/2010 4:42 PM | Comments: 0

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TORONTO - Consolidated Thompson Iron Mines Ltd. (TSX:CLM) is hoping to double production at its brand new Bloom Lake mine, and it wants to begin the expansion process within two years, the company's CEO said Monday.

Bloom Lake, an iron ore mine on the Quebec-Labrador border, is currently ramping up production and should be ready to start shipping ore by the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second quarter of 2010, president and CEO Richard Quesnel said in an interview with The Canadian Press.

Once it's producing at full capacity, Bloom Lake is expected to produce about 660,000 tonnes of iron ore a month, or eight million tonnes each year. But this could quickly double to 16 million tonnes a year if an expansion is decided to be feasible, helping to quench the seemingly insatiable demand for the metal used to make steel in China and other developing countries.

"We've been able to take a mine here in less than three years from scratch, building it and putting it into production," Quesnel said Monday. "We figure that if we get the green light and it comes in favourable and our board approves, we could be building and expanding within a period of 24 months."

The prospects for Bloom Lake helped make Consolidated Thompson the biggest gainer on the Toronto Stock Exchange in 2009, adding 563 per cent over the course of the year. By comparison, the TSX metals and mining index gained 276 per cent.

Since the beginning of 2010, shares in Consolidated Thompson have gained another 8.4 per cent to close Monday at $7.48.

In a recent research note, RBC Capital Markets analyst Robin Kozar said the miner "provides one of the most compelling growth stories in our iron ore coverage universe" and gives investors "the highest relative (net asset value) leverage to iron ore amongst its peer group."

The gain seen by the miner's shares over the past year is impressive, particularly for a company that didn't have any producing assets until very recently.

Quesnel attributes the rocketing value of Consolidated Thompson's shares to the production potential of Bloom Lake - estimated at more than one billion tonnes of iron ore - and to several other factors that make the company a particularly appealing investment.

Bloom Lake is in an area that has supported mines in the past, and therefore much of the necessary infrastructure, including roads, rail lines and power lines are already in place.

"This is a major plus because you're looking at less than $1 billion to develop those properties, whereas in a greenfield area you'd be looking more at $4 billion or $5 billion," Quesnel said.

Additionally, the fact that Bloom Lake is a brand new mine using the most modern equipment available means its production costs are in the bottom 25 per cent of iron ore mines in the world - between US$25 and $30 a tonne, compared with an average of $45 a tonne globally. This allows Consolidated Thompson to compete with much bigger producers, including Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale, Quesnel said.

Consolidated Thompson's fundamentals allowed it to secure two metal sales agreements with companies in Asia, where demand for steel has come back more quickly and strongly than in North America and Europe.

Under an agreement with South Korean company SK Networks Co. Ltd., announced in early January, Consolidated Thompson will sell one million tonnes of iron ore concentrate from Bloom Lake annually for 10 years.

And an earlier agreement with Wuhan Iron and Steel (Group) Corp., or WISCO, which operates the third-largest steel mill in China, will see Consolidated Thompson sell half of the ore produced at Bloom Lake to WISCO at market price. Under the agreement, WISCO also bought a 25 per cent stake in Bloom Lake and will have to contribute a quarter of the capital needed for any future expansion of the mine.

Quesnel said the partnership with WISCO has given Consolidated Thompson a "red carpet" into the massive Chinese market, where steel producers are increasingly looking to secure supplies of iron ore.

"WISCO, being a strategic partner, also wants to continue to grow with (Consolidated Thompson), maybe in the form of expansions at the property and other acquisitions that may be out there that would be very accretive to our shareholders," Quesnel said.

In addition, the income from its sales agreements could help Consolidated Thompson accelerate development at its other properties, including Peppler Lake-Lamalee, near Bloom Lake, which is currently undergoing a scoping study, Quesnel said.

Adding to Consolidated Thompson's investor appeal is the price of iron ore, which seems poised for a dramatic increase. Analysts are estimating anywhere between a 10 and a 30 per cent jump in contract prices for the metal due to a burgeoning demand for steel in developing countries.

Morgan Stanley economist Peter Richardson has predicted iron ore demand from China could rise by 6.2 per cent this year, while purchases in the rest of the world could grow by as much as 16 per cent. Patricia Mohr, a commodity market specialist at Scotiabank, has also predicted an increase in negotiated prices in annual contracts for iron ore.

Concerns about supply shortages have sent the spot price for iron ore up from a low in 2009 of US$48 per tonne to around $128 per tonne, while the current contract price is $65 per tonne. Spot prices tend to be indicative of where the contract price is headed, Quesnel said.

comentarios sobre ferro de Winnipeg

neste texto, comentam uma nova mina no canada (com numeros) e alguns comentarios gerais sobre o minerio de ferro.

http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:7f-eJcx6atkJ:www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/breakingnews/82635262.html+iron+ore+price+production&cd=6&hl=pt-BR&ct=clnk&gl=br

marc faber - tradução

tradução de parte de um texto em alemao:

Marc Faber: grande optimismo relativamente às acções perturbadoras / Gold continua uma compra

Categoria: U. S. Market News | Ásia Notícias | estrategistas Investimentos / Analista Técnico | TrackBox E.U. | futuros de commodities Notícias | Top Produtos | Data: 14,01. 10:45

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Nova Iorque (BoerseGo.de) - O estrategista de investimentos bem conhecido e Börsenguru Marc Faber apresentado no âmbito de uma semana este Barron's, redonda organizada mesa-redonda suas perspectivas de novos investimentos. Ele ressaltou que as ações estão atualmente quase todo mundo espera novos ganhos. Um consenso esmagadora, no entanto, lhe causou preocupação. A correção nas ações E.U. foi, portanto, uma possibilidade de serem aplicadas muito mais cedo do que a maioria acha possível. Responsável por movimentos de mercado, os especuladores podem dar um impulso tão rápido. Na observação de prontuários dos títulos preferenciais de investidores como a Google, que deve, Research In Motion, Apple e Amazon.com superficialidade. O ano de 2010 vai trazer para os investidores globais retornos mais baixos do que em 2009. Ele esperava que os rendimentos do normal entre 5-10 por cento.
Sugira uma tradução melhor

os juros norte americanos e a hora de comprar

tirado de m email da exame:

"Não lutem contra o Fed", diz Merrill Lynch a investidores

Estrategista-chefe global aconselha comprar ações de emergentes enquanto o Fed mantiver os juros baixos

| 15.01.2010 | 15h11
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São Paulo - Em relatório distribuído nesta sexta-feira, o estrategista-chefe global para o mercado de ações do BofA Merrill Lynch, Michael Hartnett, deu uma explicação bastante simples e direta de como os juros americanos influenciam os ganhos nas bolsas de mercados emergentes.
|Veja também
Pico de crescimento do Brasil já passou, diz Merrill Lynch

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Segundo ele, é hora de começar a comprar ações nesses mercados quando houver a penúltima redução de um ciclo de cortes de juros pelo Federal Reserve (o Banco Central dos EUA). Já quando houver a penúltima elevação dos juros, é hora de começar a vendê-las.

"Alguém uma vez disse: 'Há dois tipos de estrategistas de investimento para os mercados emergentes: aqueles que seguem os modelos de liquidez do Federal Reserve e aqueles que aderem a um modelo próprio. É mais divertido ouvir aqueles que seguem modelos próprios, mas seguir a cartilha do Fed fará você ganhar mais dinheiro.'"

É lógico que não é possível prever com 100% de segurança quando será a penúltima elevação dos juros no ciclo que deve ser, segundo analistas de mercado, iniciado em 2010 ou 2011. No entanto, tentar colocá-la em prática já é sinal de sabedoria, já que aqueles que acertaram os pontos de entrada e saída obtiveram um retorno anual de 37% desde o final da década de 80, contra um ganho médio de 11% ao ano dos mercados emergentes como um todo.

Como os juros devem continuar baixos durante vários meses, a conclusão de Harnett é que é hora de manter os investimentos nos mercados emergentes e "não lutar contra o Fed".

China
Um dos mercados emergentes em franca expansão, a China tem gerado temores juntos aos investidores devido a uma série de medida para esfriar a economia. Entre elas, está o recente anúncio de elevação do compulsório para os bancos.

Harnett admite que medidas como essa costumam assustar os investidores. Ele diz, no entanto, que o mercado só deve se preocupar quando esse tipo de política tiver o efeito real de reduzir o crescimento do PIB chinês. Caso contrário, será apenas uma boa oportunidade de compra de ações.

perspectivas para a europa

texto do banco Credit Suisse, publicado no site do banco www. credti-suisse.com/ch/en.

urope's 2010 Growth May Surprise to the Upside

Dorothée Enskog, Online Publications

08.01.2010 Europe is in the midst of a balanced and sustainable recovery, spurred by consumer and corporate spending as well as exports. “2010 growth may well surprise to the upside,” according to Robert Barrie, Credit Suisse’s chief European economist. He forecasts that Germany will be the continent’s growth engine in the year to come.

In Focus: Europe emerged from a year-long recession during the third quarter of 2009. Is this economic recovery sustainable?
Robert Barrie: We think this recovery will be sustainable, like a lot of other recoveries. There are all sorts of reasons why this episode is different, particularly with regard to the various problems that led to the recession.
However, the policy response was also different, much greater than seen in the past. If we balance these two observations, we believe the euro area will grow by about 2% and the UK by 1.5% in 2010. We would hope that both of these numbers will be higher in 2011.

What were these different policy responses, which helped Europe out of the recovery?
We’ve seen interest rates at roughly zero in most of the industrialized economies. In addition, there have been special measures over and above interest rate cuts: quantitative easing, liquidity measures as well as fiscal policies. We have also seen very large budget deficits.

Where will this economic growth stem from?
Within Europe, we look for balanced growth. The consumer should make some contribution to growth, as well as the corporate sector. Now that the economy has stabilized, it has become apparent that inventories and investments were cut too much during the recession. There are also regions in the global economy growing far faster than Europe, so it should be able to export to these markets.
It’s a balanced recovery. If anything, the difference is that the corporate sector is expected to make a slightly larger contribution this time.

Where is the demand for European exports coming from?
Asia is the fastest-growing region of the global economy, and becoming a large European trading partner. Central and Eastern Europe and the US are other important trading partners.

Are there some European countries likely to outperform in 2010?
Among our forecasts, we have Germany growing most quickly. It is one of the more volatile economies within the euro area, and had one of the most severe recessions. The German economy is very much driven by corporate spending and exports. It is likely to grow by 3% in 2010, while France is expected to grow 2% and Italy 1%. Countries such as Spain, Ireland and Greece will probably find things much more difficult and post much lower growth rates.

Does this acceleration in growth mean that the European Central Bank (ECB) will start to raise its benchmark interest rate during the course of 2010?
It is possible the ECB will raise its benchmark rate to 2% by the end of 2010 from 1% today. The ECB faces a two step process. First, it needs to return the market rate (the overnight rate) to the policy rate of 1%, and from there it can take the policy rate on. The very short-term interest rate is now below the policy rate, as the ECB has supplied so much liquidity to the system.

Greece has recently been in the headlines with concerns that the country might default or even be forced out of the euro area. Is this likely?
No, we don’t think Greece will default in any serious way or leave the euro area. Greece, however, has a number of public finance issues to resolve. It is not the only country in this situation.
But Greece has come under some scrutiny as it does not appear to have filled out all the details of its restructuring programme. It needs to come up with some slightly more concrete measures, by which it is going to achieve the public finance targets the euro area countries need to fulfill.

What does Greece need to do?
They need a whole range of measures. Usually the most successful fiscal consolidation takes place on the spending side rather than on the tax side. There is a role model here, which is Ireland.
The Irish economy found itself in similar circumstances to Greece, with a very severe recession and serious consequences for the public finances. Ireland put together quite substantial measures. It’s notable that the spreads on Irish bonds didn’t widen to the same extent as those of the Greek bonds recently. The market does differentiate between economies, depending on the sort of austerity programs put in place.

Are there other euro area countries facing a similar situation?
Some European economies face serious challenges. The adjustment process within a monetary union is slightly different from that outside: there is no exchange rate and no country-specific interest rate.
To change your real exchange rate, your competitiveness can be improved by running a lower inflation rate than your neighboring economies. That is quite a long process. That is the process that Spain is perhaps embarking on. It may involve an extended period of slow growth, some very low inflation rates, as well as some problematic developments in the public finances.

Does this affect the euro’s credibility in the short term or in the long term?
I’m not so sure about that. All economies have difficulties from time to time. One can look at the various states within the US and find there are different economic conditions in those. That can also be seen within the UK.
Large economies quite often have geographical diversities within them. That should not detract from the credibility of the euro area. The euro area and the ECB have had quite a good crisis so far. They have held together and pursued an appropriate monetary policy.

Where do you see the euro in 2010?
The euro is quite an expensive currency at today’s levels. The dollar has, however, appreciated somewhat in the past weeks, supported by improved employment numbers. But as we get through 2010, it may well be that the euro area surprises a little bit to the upside. So we are not looking at big moves in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

How about inflation? Could it become an issue in 2010?
It will likely remain low in 2010, but one should probably distinguish core inflation (the inflation generated inside Europe) from headline inflation (with food and energy components partly determined outside Europe). Core inflation will probably be low and fall further in 2010. That typically happens after a recession, and during the early stages of a recovery. Core inflation will probably reach 0.5% for the euro area, with something closer to 1% on headline inflation. Outside the euro area, in the UK, for example, inflation is likely to be slightly higher.

Are other risks facing the euro area in 2010?
There are both downside and upside risks. There is still concern about the financial system and the banking system, as to whether all of the various impairments have been recognized and dealt with. This may become more apparent as the ECB withdraws some of the liquidity it has provided to the banking system. The need of the banking system to adjust a bit more may become apparent in 2010. That is certainly an issue, as is the exit strategy of the ECB.
We will see these issues arising more towards the end of the year than at its start, as interest rates are rising and budget deficits are coming down.
There are also upside risks. This recovery may surprise us to the upside, particularly with regard to corporate spending.


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Rubin espera petroleo a 100 no final de 2010

e espera que já chegue a 90 no primeiro trimestre.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZmJGmyDUVXM&pos=6