sobre analise de opções

tirado do forum do bastter:
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vdx de preferencia vender quando for maior que 4
Bosi, quando o bosi chegar lá, recomprar a opção vendida.

sobre preços do minerio de ferro

isso aí é copia do site www.basemetals.com

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Ore prices not so iron-clad
CHRIS ZAPPONE
November 20, 2009
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Update A bonanza in new iron ore mining projects may herald lower prices in coming years as capacity begins to catch up with rising Asian demand, according to a long-time industry watcher.

Fat Prophets resource analyst Nick Raffan said he sees parallels between the current flurry of investment in new and expanded mines aimed at satisfying China's iron ore hunger and the rush to meet Japanese coal orders in the late 1970s from new mines in Queensland, the Hunter Valley in NSW and elsewhere.

The latter surge led to an over-supply and subsequent price slump for the energy source that lasted decades.

''Traditionally, miners have never been able to stop themselves eventually from over-producing,'' said Mr Raffan. ''It's in their nature.''

Australia remains dependent on commodities for more than half its exports, with shipments to China of iron-ore and related concentrates alone worth $22.1 billion in 2008-09, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Apart from helping to narrow Australia's trade gap, rising commodity prices and volumes bolster state and federal coffers.

In volume terms, Australia exported 323.3 million metric tonnes of iron ore and pellets to China in 2008-09, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Expansion under way

While Mr Raffan acknowledges the strength of the current up-swing in iron ore as Asian economies - particularly China's - rebound from last year's slump, he says there is a risk miners in Australia and elsewhere are increasing production too quickly.

As of October, investments in Australia to expand or develop resources totalled $112.5 billion, ABARE numbers said this week. Iron ore mining or infrastructure capex projects accounted for about 15 per cent of that total, with nearly 40 additional projects under consideration.

Nor is Australia alone in undertaking large investments to expand capacity. Vale, the Brazilian competitor to BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, said last month it will spend $US12.9 billion ($14 billion) to raise production and exports, including funding two new iron ore mines.

Bloomberg reports Vale expects to export 140 million tons of iron ore to China this year.

Meanwhile China, which is producing about half the world's steel, is investing in mining capacity of its own. Projects include mines in Australia, Africa and South America.

Mr Raffan doesn't think the additional Brazil's output, nor China's own investments, is on the minds of local resource project developers.

''I think everyone sees things through rose-coloured glasses at the moment," he said.

Sky-high hopes

BHP Billiton's chief executive officer Marius Kloppers reiterated his company's confidence in China's demand for resources holding up.

In a speech this week to the Lowy Institute, Mr Kloppers said China would build 50,000 skyscrapers over the next 20 years, or 600 times the number Sydney now has.

Also fuelling China's resource hunger will be further urbanisation, with the country expected to have 220 cities of more than one million people by 2030, compared with Europe's total of 35 now.

Such confidence in China's growth is helping to nudge iron ore prices higher after a drop of about a third last year.

Spot prices for iron ore recently climbed to $US104 a tonne, while a consensus of analysts polled by Bloomberg forecasts the contract price for iron ore - about $US60 a tonne before freight - to rise by 14 per cent next year.

While China's economic growth this year has surprised on the upside, some analysts are raising doubts about its reliance once massive state spending and directed lending subside.

Credit Suisse, a Swiss bank, points to signs that the economy is losing some momentum, comparing China's yearly industrial production rate with the PMI new orders index - a gauge of manufacturing activity.

China's industrial production rose 16.1 per cent in the year to October year-on-year, from 13.9 per cent the month before, according to the latest figures. The PMI new orders index, though, fell in October to 57.6 from 58.

''Going forward, if Chinese banks only lend at a RMB 200-250 billion ($32-40 billion) per month pace, we will see fixed asset investment growth slow, consistent with less support for commodity prices,'' said Credit Suisse analyst Damien Boey.

An export recovery may help China if its banks slow lending to avoid asset bubbles, he said. ''But certainly, growth will not be as good as it was post-first half stimulus,'' he said.

Flattening trajectory

Mine Life senior analyst Gavin Wendt said he's not as pessimistic on prices as some, but based on the influx of new mining projects, ''it's getting harder to see the same price run-ups.''

''The rising price trajectory is going to flatten off even as the demand continues to increase from China and India,'' he said.

The price for ore will move in a range between $US80-$US120 per tonne over the next couple of years, Mr Wendt said, easing in the long term to a $US80-$US100 range as new production comes on-stream.

Mr Wendt said the Chinese lining up to partner with Australian miners are trying to ensure price stability in the years to come by expanding sources of production as the Japanese did with coal beginning in the 1980s.

Macquarie view

The dim views don't accord with those of Macquarie Bank analyst Jim Lennon, Bloomberg News reported today.

Mr Lennon predicts global commodity demand will have a steady recovery next year, with China leading consumption.

China accounted for about 50 per cent of global commodity demand this year, up from about a third a year ago, Lennon said at a conference in Hong Kong.

Metal prices have rallied 81 per cent this year in London on Chinese purchases, and as a weaker dollar and expectations that the world is poised to recover from its worst recession since World War II stoked demand. Investors raised holdings in commodities to the highest levels in at least three years, BOfA Merrill Lynch Global Research said.

''The leap in demand for commodities in China this year has been quite staggering,'' Lennon said. ''You can see where these commodities are going by the increase in production in China of goods like autos.''

Steel production in China this year may jump to 570 million metric tons, up from about 500 million tons last year, Lennon said. Macquarie's forecast compares with the 565 million tons predicted by the China Iron & Steel Association yesterday.

czappone@fairfax.com.au
Business Day, with Bloomberg News
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vale

copia de pesquisa do google, falando de nova mina da empresa.

Uma corrida pelo minério está ganhando contornos no Brasil depois da crise financeira mundial. O interesse por ativos do setor voltou a crescer, alimentado pelo apetite de siderúrgicas de todo o mundo, que querem reduzir custos de produção, e das próprias mineradoras, interessadas em expandir o seu negócio.

No centro dessa tendência está o município de Guanhães, no Vale do Rio Doce, onde a GME4, dona de ativos minerários em vários locais do país, descobriu uma nova fronteira mineral, com reservas estimadas em 400 milhões de toneladas em uma única mina. Só para comparar, a mina de Brucutu, da Vale, em São Gonçalo do Rio Abaixo, na Região Central de Minas, tem reservas de 730 milhões de toneladas de minério de ferro. O projeto de Guanhães está focado em 17 de um total de 157 áreas distribuídas em 30,5 mil hectares. “Os teores de ferro são superiores a 40%”, afirma o geólogo João Carlos Cavalcanti, sócio da GME4.

Além de explorar minério no município, a ideia é construir um mineroduto ligando a cidade a um porto que será instalado no Espírito Santo. Cavalcanti diz que ainda não há estimativas do investimento necessário para a empreitada, mas acredita que serão criados de 20 mil e 40 mil empregos na região. Só para comparar, Guanhães tem hoje cerca de 30 mil habitantes. Segundo ele, as vagas de trabalho serão geradas na construção de um minerotudo, de um ramal ferroviário e nas usinas de concentração e de pelotização de minério, sem contar a atração de empresas de prestação de serviço para o empreendimento.

“Estamos sendo procurados por grandes players mundiais do setor de mineração e siderurgia e devemos fechar esse e outros negócios até 26 de outubro”, revela Cavalcanti, que, considerado o geólogo mais rico do mundo, disputa com seu ex-sócio, Eike Batista, o título de brasileiro mais rico. A ideia é vender 80% das reservas para sócios investidores, mantendo participação de 20%. Quando diz que vai fechar negócio, ele se refere a Guanhães e a outros projetos da GME4 no país, como o do Piauí, que está sendo tocado pela subsidiária PI4. Com investimentos de US$ 800 milhões, quando estiver em operação, o empreendimento deverá responder por 20% do PIB do estado. O projeto de Guanhães é o segundo maior da GME4 no país, atrás apenas do de Piauí. “A dificuldade lá é logística. As reservas são de classe internacional, acima de 300 milhões de toneladas”, afirma o empresário.

Para o analista de investimentos em mineração da corretora SLW, Pedro Galdi, o aparecimento de novos ativos minerários vem “aguçando o apetite de muita gente”. Segundo ele, quando esse ativo é interessante, o dono não tem nem trabalho. “É só levantar uma bandeirinha que aparece um interessado em comprar”, brinca. De acordo com ele, esse movimento reflete uma situação especial da economia. “A crise afugentou muitos investimentos mas o pessoal já percebeu que o minério será necessário daqui a pouco. As siderúrgicas vão precisar dele para reduzir seus custos e as mineradoras para ampliar o leque de sua reserva. Além disso, hoje os preços estão em outra realidade, se comparados aos anteriores à crise, e isso também atrai compradores”, avalia.

O novo distrito minerário tem vocação para a produção de pelotas de minério como granulados, pellet-feed e sinter-feed. A fase agora é de prospecção. Os resultados finais são esperados para o fim do primeiro semestre do ano que vem. Só em investimentos em pesquisa, a GME4 já aplicou US$ 50 milhões, US$ 10 milhões dos quais em Minas. “Nessa fase, os valores não são grandes”, reconhece João Carlos Cavalcanti. Segundo ele, os investimentos mais pesados são feitos durante o desenvolvimento do projeto e a extração propriamente dita.

Em julho de 2008, foi descoberta, no município de Rio Pardo de Minas, de 28,2 mil habitantes, no Norte de Minas, uma jazida de minério de ferro com reserva estimada em 10 bilhões de toneladas. As reservas da área são equivalentes às do quadrilátero ferrífero mineiro, que abrange a região metropolitana e municípios do Vale do Aço como João Monlevade e Itabira.

comentarios semanais no site oilngold

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Weekly Fundamental Outlook for Energies and Metals - Crude is Prone to Head Lower As We Enter the Shoulder Season Print E-mail
ONG Focus - Insights
Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Sep 26 09 11:57 ET

The themes directing commodity prices remained to be USD, macro economic outlook and equity markets.

The dollar index sank deeper earlier in the week as market sentiment continued to improve. Moreover, as US LIBOR has traded in a discount to Japan LIBOR, there's speculations that USD will replace Japanese yen as the currency for carry trades. However, the dollar index rebounded after falling to 76.05 after the Fed announced to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and slow down the pace of buying agency debts and MBS without changing the size. The dollar recovered further after major central banks decided to limit their liquidity provisions to the financial systems as economy recovers. This implies supply of USD will be reduced.

Macroeconomic data were mixed. New Zealand's economy unexpectedly exited from recession in 2Q09 as the GDP grew -0.2% qoq during the quarter after contracting -0.8% in 1Q09. In the UK, BOE's minutes for September meeting was a non-event as there was unanimous vote for keeping the policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and maintaining the asset purchase program at 175B pounds. There were also no comments about reducing deposit rates on bank reserves. However, Governor Mervyn King's comment later in the week that weakness in pound is good for UK's economy and news that the central bank will hold a 'crisis meeting' next week to discuss about cutting deposit triggered pound's weakness.

Stock markets trended lower last week with Dow Jones Industrial Average losing -1.6% while S&P 500 Index sliding -2.2%. Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index plunged -3.7% to 250.5.
Crude Oil

WTI crude oil price was weak most of the day on Friday and was dragged to as low at 65.05 before strong US existing home sales lifted price. The benchmark contract settled at 66.02, paring losses in previous 2 days. On weekly basis, crude oil price slid -8.4% and fell on 3 out of the past 5 trading days.

In the coming week, we believe there's chance for oil to weaken further. There is possibility for price break the lower level of the recent trading range of 65-75 toward 60. October is normally a shoulder season for energy consumption. However, price will be well-support as it approaches 60.

The selloff last week was triggered by huge build in US crude inventory which increased +2.86 mmb to 335.6 mmb while the market had anticipated a draw of -14.5 mmb. The unexpected inventory build was driven by a +10% increase in oil imports and decline in oil consumption. Decline in oil demand will continue and probably worsen in coming weeks. Mid-September to early October is the transitional period between the end of the driving season and the beginning of winter heating season. During this period, rise in inventory and decline in demand are 'normal'. However, the current situation has been exacerbated by the extremely weak first half which has driven inventory to very high and demand to very low levels.

Refiners are normally busy with gasoline production before and during the peak driving seasons, and they should be switching to heating oil production at the end of the driving season. However, the switching process will be delayed this year as distillate inventory is abundant and refining margin is low. Decline in refinery runs will cause crude to build up further.

Geopolitical tension arose as Iran has been building a second plant for enriching uranium. In a letter sent to the United Nation's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on September 21, Iran stated that 'a new pilot fuel enrichment plant is under construction' and more information about the plant will be 'provided at an appropriate and due time'. US President Obama, President Sarkozy of France and Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain said that Iran's actions are 'threatening the stability and security' of the world.

It's very likely the UN will sanction Iran in coming months, One possibility is restriction on gasoline sales to the nation while Iran may halt its oil exports in return. Although this may trigger worries about gas supply shortage, the actual impact in the near-term should not be significant especially when there's over 5M bpd of spare capacity.

Natural Gas

Natural gas price rose in the past 4 days and finished the week +5.5% higher at 3.985. Having surged for 3 consecutive weeks, gas price should have been bottomed at 2.5 in early September, at least in the medium term.

Gas storage increased +67 bcf to 3525 bcf last week. The build was largely inline with market expectation, In recent weeks, increase in gas storage has been matched or slightly lower than consensus forecast. There have been 2 different views on the situation. One group of analysts believed the moderated rise in gas inventory has been driven by shutdowns of production plants while the other believes this was due to improvement in gas demand.
Despite slowdown in inventory build, gas will likely reach maximum capacity next week. The highest gas storage was 3545 bcf recorded in November 2007. Should there be an injection of more than 20 bcf in the coming week, gas storage will set a new record high and this is almost a certain thing! Therefore, we believe recent strength in price is premature and a pullback will be seen in the coming week.

Precious Metals

Gold price plummeted to 985.5 before recovering amid renewed weakness in USD. The yellow metal ended the day with -0.7% loss at 991.6. The benchmark contract for gold fell -1.9% during the week, the first weekly decline since early August. Others in the precious metal complex also plunged with silver losing -6% and platinum dropping -3.7%.

Interestingly investors reacted negatively to the news that the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, decided to limit its gold sales over the next 12 months to 6.5 metric tons. Sales will be made directly to the German Finance Ministry and part of the gold sold will be used for gold coin production. Moreover, the central bank said that it will refrain from gold sales in the first year of a new CBGA. We believe the selloff was triggered by the words 'gold sales'. In fact, there has not been any change in the central bank's long-term policy.

Although ETF investment remained robust, gold holdings in SPDR, the largest gold ETF, slid to 3.518M oz on September 24 after surging to 3.542M oz, the highest level since July 13, earlier in the week. Net speculative long positions for Comex gold futures edged slightly higher to 236.7K contracts in the week ended September 22. Although net long position continued to increase, the pace has slowed down after rising for 5 weeks. We do not feel surprised if there's a contraction in the coming week. If fact, we have been saying that gold, as well as others in the precious metal complex, is vulnerable to correction given by huge net long positions.

Base Metals

Base metal prices trended generally lower last week as worries about rising inventory and declining China consumption continued to linger in the market. In fact, the rising inventory has been caused by reducing China imports. In coming months, prices will continue struggling until we see a pickup in demand.

LME copper for 3 months' delivery ended the week -3% lower. In the beginning of the week, price rebounded as support was seen above 6000. However, rebound in USD and weakness in stock markets amplified investors' concerns about demand and sold down copper to below 6000 Thursday. Price sank to as low as 5990 before recovery.


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* Economic Calendar 9/29/09 (Monday, 28 September 2009 13:23 ET)
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* Gold Daily Technical Outlook (Monday, 28 September 2009 07:09 ET)
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* Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook (Monday, 28 September 2009 07:08 ET)
* Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook (Monday, 28 September 2009 07:07 ET)
* Commodity Prices Remain Soft in Asia Monday (Monday, 28 September 2009 00:39 ET)
* Economic Calendar 9/28/09 (Sunday, 27 September 2009 16:01 ET)
* Gold Weekly Technical Outlook (Saturday, 26 September 2009 09:17 ET)
* Silver Weekly Technical Outlook (Saturday, 26 September 2009 09:17 ET)


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Oil N' Gold Focus Reports
Weekly Fundamental Outlook for Energies and Metals - Crude's Rally Derailed from Fundamentals Again Print E-mail
ONG Focus - Insights
Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Sep 19 09 13:32 ET

Strength in stock markets and decline in USD were the major reasons for the rises in commodities. In the US, Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed +2.2% to settle at 9820 while S&P 500 Index surged +2.6% to 1068.3 as driven by better-than-expected housing market (housing starts), employment situation (jobless claims) and improvements in manufacturing activities (Empire State and Philly Fed Index).

The dollar weakened further with every rebound being treated an opportunity to sell as investors' risk appetite increases. In the coming week, the FOMC meeting will be market's focus. While the Fed will likely announce to keep its policy rate at 0-0.25% for an extended period of time, it may talk more about plans for exiting from the current stimulus policies.
Crude Oil

Crude oil price retreated to -0.6% to settle 72.04 Friday, the second consecutive day of fall as USD recovered after substantially weakened against major currencies in the past week. On weekly basis, the October contract reached 73.16 the highest and gained +4%. Recent rally in crude oil has been determined by movements in USD and stock markets, rather than fundamentals on the energy market.

US crude inventory declined -4.73 mmb, compared with consensus of -2.3 mmb, to 332.8 mmb in the week ended September 11. Although the draw was much higher than market anticipation, it was driven by robust refinery runs (Refinery runs declined slightly but remained strong at 86.9% of capacity) and reduction in US imports, rather than improvement in demand. In fact, weak demand has been indicated in higher-than-expected increase in gasoline and distillate stockpiles. Gasoline stockpile rose +0.55 mmb to 207.7 mmb while distillate stockpile gained +2.24 mmb to 167.8 mmb, the highest level since 1983.High refinery utilization but weak consumption contributed to the surge in fuel inventories.

Normally, refiners increase gasoline production ahead of and during driving season and then switch to heating oil production after the peak season. However, as distillate inventory remains at sky-high level, the transition will be delayed this year.

Weakness in distillate demand has been linked to industrial production. Although industrial production has picked up in July and August, it remains in multi-year low level. This is quite similar in the case for distillate.

All of EIA, IEA and OPEC's September reports generally depicted a more optimistic outlook on global energy demand. However, a closer look at the supply side suggests that output growth will continue to exceed demand growth modestly in 2010. On average, the anticipated increase in demand was +0.91M bpd in 2010 from 2009 while total growth in non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs will be around +1.07M bpd. This means that there's no need for any more growth in OPEC's production in the coming year. This also suggests that although OPEC did not change production at September's meeting, it may need to announce cuts in coming months.

Natural Gas

Natural gas rose +9.3% to 3.78 Friday although fundamentals in gas market remained weak. The futures climbed +28% this week, the biggest increase since the week ended October 20, 2006. We believe this was mainly technical rebound and gas price should continue to trade with high volatility.

Gas storage rose +66 bcf to 3458 bcf in the week ended September 11. Although the increase was less than market expectation of +80 bcf and the surplus to the 5-year average also have declined to 16% from 17% in the prior week, months of substantial increase in gas have made total inventory almost reach the maximum level in 2008.

Fundamentals remain weak in natural gas. Compared with the same period in previous years, storage of above 3450 bcf has been rare. There are still more weeks until the end of traditional injection season and almost 2 months away from the first winter draw, it's hard to tell how the huge inventory will be disposed. In the current situation, we do not see any reason for gas price to strengthen further.

According to Baker Hughes, the number of gas rigs has risen 6 units to 705 units in the week ended September 18. Rebound in gas price probably encouraged production.

Precious Metals

The precious metal complex lost ground as USD rebounded from 1-year low against the euro. The benchmark contracts for gold, silver and platinum dropped -0.3%, -1.25 and -0.2% to 1010.3, 17.07 and 1338.2 respectively Friday. However, on weekly basis, the metals continued rising +0.4%, +2.2% and +1.4% correspondingly.

Gold price managed to close above 1000 for 6 consecutive days. We believe the strength was mainly driven by the sharp fall in dollar. During the period (Sep 11-Sep 18), the greenback has dipped -1% against the euro. In fact, the dollar index has already plunged -2.2%, since the beginning of the month.

In the coming week, we believe the yellow metal will consolidate with a range of 1000-1033.9 mainly due to profit-taking. Net speculative long positions made another record high of 235.6K contracts in the week ended September 15 after rising to 224.7K contracts in the prior week. Long liquidation is imminent in the short-term and this will inescapably drag gold price lower.

Inflation fears remerged as both of US' CPI and PPI beat market expectation. The worry will linger for some time as global economic outlook improves. This, together with lower interest rates, should lend further support to the yellow metal in the medium- to long-term.

Silver's outperformance over gold will likely cause a heavier correction in the white metal

Platinum has the best fundamental outlook within the complex. Signs of recovery in auto sector, continued robustness in investment demand as well as increase in jewelry demand in China will like push price higher.

Base Metals

Strong macro-economic environment continued to support base metals although, in the near-term, pullbacks will be seen as driven by stock builds in exchanges and reduction in China imports.

LME copper for 3-month delivery slid -3.3% to close at 6175 Friday. Over the week, the benchmark contract dropped in 3 out of 5 days and ended up at a loss of -1.2%. Copper inventory at LME warehouse has risen +2.9% to 327.7K metric tons last week. Inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also soared +7% over the past week. These triggered concerns about demand as China, the world's growth driver seemed to have halted stockpiling.


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Latest Analysis from this Author

* Economic Calendar 9/22/09 (Monday, 21 September 2009 13:07 ET)
* Correction Seen in Commodities as Strength in USD ... (Monday, 21 September 2009 07:00 ET)
* Gold Daily Technical Outlook (Monday, 21 September 2009 06:45 ET)
* Silver Daily Technical Outlook (Monday, 21 September 2009 06:44 ET)
* Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook (Monday, 21 September 2009 06:43 ET)
* Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook (Monday, 21 September 2009 06:43 ET)
* Crude Oil Retreats. Investors Need Evidence on Dem... (Monday, 21 September 2009 00:55 ET

sobre prejuizos na venda de opções

do site do bast ter:

Para mim é simples

bateu em 32 fui lá e rolei para 34 pagando a diferença
bateu em 34 fui lá e rolei para 36 pagando a diferença
nesse meio tempo ganhei um ou dois vencimentos e a ação subiu de 30 para 36


no meu gráfico estou perdendo
para o cara que não fez nada
mas não faz mal
pq quando cair
ou andar de lado eu ganho novamente
e vou juntando para quando voltar a subir


já para o predador
opção bateu em 1,20 compra 20% da venda
bateu em 1,40 compra outros 20%
bateu em 1,60 compra mais 20%
bateu em 1,80 mais 20%
bateu em 2,00 zera toda a venda
e lança mais acima

é mais ou menos isso
ele explica melhor...

o importante é que nos dois casos
não ficou defendendo venda com mais venda
só pq um dia o mercado vai cair

nessa de um dia o mercado vai cair
teve gente que tá tentando vender J22 até hj
a parte do J22 é brincadeira
mas vi muita gente ficar vendido em 22 por alguns meses e mercado em 28/30...

e aí bau bau pra carteira..

artigo preve sstandard poor a 14000 pontos no final de 1020

esse artigo eu vi no site resourceinvestor.com


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Comparing the S&P and the Nikkei: 1400 by 2010; 400 by 2014


* Lorimer Wilson

Published 9/1/2009
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Merrill Lynch Asia (Bank of America) strategists Sadiq Currimbhoy, Arik Reiss, and Jacky Tang suggest that the S&P 500 could soar another 40% by December 2010 before it collapses completely based on a unique comparison with the Nikkei 225. (Before you reject this possibility out of hand please read the entire article.)

Were the S&P 500 to indeed rise by 40% then, by extension, precious metals stocks (as represented by the HUI and GDM indices) and their associated warrants (as represented by our proprietary PreciousMetalsWarrants Index) would top out at record highs as would gold and silver.

Uncanny Relationship Exists (with a Twist) between the Nikkei and the S&P 500
The strategists have identified a pattern that supports the likelihood of major additional gains in the US stock market even without a strong economic recovery which suggests that the rally should continue until the end of 2010 (until Dec. 10, 2010, to be precise). Below is an edited version of what the Merrill Lynch strategists had to say:

Some investors like to compare the US to Japan. From a market perspective, plotting the Nikkei and the S&P 500 shows no similarity. However, a peculiar variation shows an uncanny relationship.

The chart below shows the Nikkei in U.S. dollars compared to the S&P 500. The S&P 500 in DXY terms has been rebased to the same peak as in Japan, except 117 months (9.75 years) later. If this pattern repeats, there is potential for 40% upside until December, 2010.

Assuming a relationship similar to what Japan went through, the S&P 500 in DXY terms could well rise another 40% pretty much from now until mid-December 2010. Importantly, this is in DXY terms, so if the U.S. dollar were to rally 20% and the S&P 500 17% (as it’s multiplied), that would do it. If the market were to only rally to the lower trend line in the chart, then the total upside would be 33%, split between the U.S. dollar and the equity market.

The Merrill strategists went further, constructing an equally-weighted index of all markets that have crashed more than 45% since 1970 plus the U.S. stock market crash in 1930 and then averaged the recoveries from these crashes (referred to as ‘Historical Peak-Trough Index’). They found that strong "relief rallies" are common and that, should this pattern hold for the S&P 500, then it should experience a further 40% appreciation by the end of 2010.

Specifically, they looked at all the markets since 1970 that had had crashes of more than 45% in the previous 12 months in U.S. dollar terms (or 50% in local currency terms) and added in the U.S. stock market crash of 1930 to create their equally-weighted index. This is shown in the chart below with 25% and 75% bands.

Relationship Suggests S&P 500 Will Rise to 1400-1500 before Falling Back to 400
When they the Historical Peak-Trough Index was compared to markets that have recently experienced similar deterioration (referred to as ‘Current Peak-Trough Index’) they concluded that the current S&P 500 index looks like it’s following a similar pattern and is set to peak in 15-16 months some 40% higher than the current level. That would have the S&P 500 topping out at somewhere around 1400-1500 (i.e. 5-10% less than the S&P 500’s record high of 1565 in October 2007) before crashing back to its 1994 low of 400 (when the stock market bubble first began) by the end of 2013 or early 2014.

Peculiar Variation Confirms Projections of Dent, Napier and Others
It is interesting to note that Merrill Lynch’s projections, based on this approach, mirror those of Russell Napier and Harry S. Dent Jr. whom I highlighted in a March, 2009 article entitled "Dent, Prechter and Others Warn that the Worst is yet to Come (Engulf Us)." Both men, independent of each other and based on their own unique approaches to market research, maintained a year ago that the S&P 500 would rally dramatically from early 2009 to mid-2010 (Dent saying the Dow would go to a high of 13,200 which, incidentally, would represent a 38% increase from last Friday’s close of 9544) only to slowly decline to a bottom of 400 or so by either 2012 (Dent) or 2014 (Napier).

Napier, who wrote "Anatomy of the Bear" and teaches at Edinburgh Business School in addition to being a strategist with CLSA Ltd., based his projections on Tobin’s "q" ratio which compares the market value of companies to their constituent parts. His projected low of 400 was conditional on deflation setting in, which has, because "with deflation the value of assets fall and the value of debt stay up crushing equities." No one was expecting deflation a year ago but we currently are in the midst of it which should cause us to reflect on the merits of Napier’s assertions. Below are the monthly inflation (deflation) rates year-to-date compliments of inflationdata.com:

0.03%, 0.24%, -0.38%, -0.74%, -1.28%, -1.43%, -2.10%

Relationship Suggests the HUI and GDM Could Rise to Record Highs
Year-to-date the HUI and GDM are up 20.6% and 18.6% respectively (see table below) or, on average, 41% greater than the S&P 500 increase YTD of 13.9%. If the S&P 500 were to appreciate 40% and the trend ratio between the broad stock market and the narrow large/medium cap precious metals mining sector were to continue one could expect the HUI and GDM to increase in the neighbourhood of 56% by year’s end. That would put the HUI at around 570 (10.6% above it’s all-time high of 515 in March 2007) and the GDM at about 1666 (7.2% above it’s all-time high of 1553 in March 2008.) The results of the comparative analysis seem plausible.

** Week ending August 28th, 2009

***CDNX is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index consisting of 558 micro/nano cap companies of which 44% are engaged in the mining, exploration and/or development of gold and/or silver and other mineral resources and 18% in oil or natural gas pursuits.
****HUI is the symbol of the AMEX Gold BUGS (Basket of Un-hedged Gold Stocks) Index and is a modified equal dollar-weighted index of 15 large/mid cap gold mining companies that do not hedge their gold beyond 1.5 years.
*****GDM is the symbol for the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and is a modified market capitalization weighted index of 31 large/mid/small cap gold and silver mining companies.
******SPTGD is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and is a modified market capitalization index of 19 large/mid cap precious metals mining companies.


Relationship Suggests Gold Could go to $1175 and Silver to $27.67
Were we to apply the same approach to the analysis of the short-term price for gold and silver a record price would result for gold and a dramatic increase would be realized in the price of silver. Gold has gone up only 8% YTD vis-à-vis the S&P 500’s 13.9% or 57.5% as much. Therefore, should the S&P 500 go up 40% one could expect, under this scenario, that gold would go up a further 23% (57.5% of 40%) which would put gold well above that ‘precious barrier’ of $1000 to a record $1175 by year’s end. Again, the results of the comparative analysis seem achievable.

Silver is up 30.3% YTD or 2.2 times that of the S&P 500. That would translate into an 87% price increase in the current price of silver from $14.72 as of last Friday to $27.50 by the end of 2009. The resulting number seems a bit far-fetched but that is what the analysis reveals for what it is worth.

Relationship Suggests the Micro/Nano-cap Category Could Set Record High
The CDNX is the proxy for the micro/nano-cap category of stocks and it is up 67% YTD in U.S. dollars. As such, if the micro/nano category were to continue to outperform the S&P 500 by the same ratio for the balance of the year the 40% increase in the S&P 500 would equate to a value of 3472 for the CDNX or 3% beyond the record high of 3370 reached in May 2007. The results of this comparative analysis seem possible on the surface but given the continuing tight credit situation such an advance in such a short period of time and at this particular point in time seems somewhat unlikely.

Relationship Suggests 33% of Warrants Would become Exercizable?
The above analyses suggests that, as the relationships currently stand between the S&P 500, the HUI and GDM indices, gold, silver and the micro/nano-cap category of stocks, were the S&P 500 to go up 40%, gold bullion might well go up 23%, large/medium cap gold and silver mining/royalty companies might go up by 60%, silver might go up as much as 87% and micro/nano-cap companies might go up by almost 200%. Since the 24-month plus duration warrants of commodity-related companies are up 75% more than their associated stocks, i.e. 112.3% vs. 64.2% YTD, according to information gleamed from preciousmetalswarrants.com’s free database, one would expect such warrants to appreciate in excess of 300% if the relationship holds true. If that were to happen a third of the 100 or so commodity-related warrants trading in the market would become exercisable enabling owners of same to reap major over-and-above returns.

The Hong Kong-based Merrill Lynch Asia strategists concluded their August 26 analysis by explaining that a 40% melt-up rally in the U.S. may be triggered by central bankers keeping interest rates low (and there is no evidence to the contrary at this point in time), an economic recovery (which there seems to be if we are to believe even a fraction of the ”green shoots” hype we have been hearing the past few weeks) or an undervalued dollar (which is debatable with many a convincing argument that the dollar is just the opposite and going to get much weaker).

Their analysis bears scrutiny and ongoing review for us to successfully navigate these troubled investment waters we all find ourselves currently in. It certainly would be nice to see the S&P 500 go up a further 40% in the next few months; gold and silver a further 23% and 87% respectively to set a base for even greater heights as the stock market crumbles; commodity-related large and medium-cap stocks a further 60%; micro and nano (penny) stocks go up 200% and a warrants with the right leverage/time values to go up in excess of 300%. Very nice indeed!

To my readers: I receive many e-mails with questions and comments regarding my articles and I make a point of replying to each and every one. Please feel free to drop me a line or two. If you are interested in writing an article we would be delighted in considering you as one of our periodic Guest Contributors. I am a guest speaker at the inaugural World MoneyShow in Toronto this coming October 22/23. If you attend please introduce yourself.

Lorimer Wilson (lorimer.wilson@live.com) is director of marketing and contributing editor of www.PreciousMetalsWarrants.com, which provides an online subscription database for all warrants trading on mining and other natural resource companies in the United States and Canada and offers a free weekly e-mail, and www.InsidersInsights.com, which alerts subscribers when corporate insiders of a limited number of junior mining and natural resource companies are buying and selling.

Merrill Lynch Asia (Bank of America) strategists Sadiq Currimbhoy, Arik Reiss, and Jacky Tang suggest that the S&P 500 could soar another 40% by December 2010 before it collapses completely based on a unique comparison with the Nikkei 225. (Before you reject this possibility out of hand please read the entire article.)

Were the S&P 500 to indeed rise by 40% then, by extension, precious metals stocks (as represented by the HUI and GDM indices) and their associated warrants (as represented by our proprietary PreciousMetalsWarrants Index) would top out at record highs as would gold and silver.

Uncanny Relationship Exists (with a Twist) between the Nikkei and the S&P 500
The strategists have identified a pattern that supports the likelihood of major additional gains in the US stock market even without a strong economic recovery which suggests that the rally should continue until the end of 2010 (until Dec. 10, 2010, to be precise). Below is an edited version of what the Merrill Lynch strategists had to say:

Some investors like to compare the US to Japan. From a market perspective, plotting the Nikkei and the S&P 500 shows no similarity. However, a peculiar variation shows an uncanny relationship.

The chart below shows the Nikkei in U.S. dollars compared to the S&P 500. The S&P 500 in DXY terms has been rebased to the same peak as in Japan, except 117 months (9.75 years) later. If this pattern repeats, there is potential for 40% upside until December, 2010.

Assuming a relationship similar to what Japan went through, the S&P 500 in DXY terms could well rise another 40% pretty much from now until mid-December 2010. Importantly, this is in DXY terms, so if the U.S. dollar were to rally 20% and the S&P 500 17% (as it’s multiplied), that would do it. If the market were to only rally to the lower trend line in the chart, then the total upside would be 33%, split between the U.S. dollar and the equity market.

The Merrill strategists went further, constructing an equally-weighted index of all markets that have crashed more than 45% since 1970 plus the U.S. stock market crash in 1930 and then averaged the recoveries from these crashes (referred to as ‘Historical Peak-Trough Index’). They found that strong "relief rallies" are common and that, should this pattern hold for the S&P 500, then it should experience a further 40% appreciation by the end of 2010.

Specifically, they looked at all the markets since 1970 that had had crashes of more than 45% in the previous 12 months in U.S. dollar terms (or 50% in local currency terms) and added in the U.S. stock market crash of 1930 to create their equally-weighted index. This is shown in the chart below with 25% and 75% bands.

Relationship Suggests S&P 500 Will Rise to 1400-1500 before Falling Back to 400
When they the Historical Peak-Trough Index was compared to markets that have recently experienced similar deterioration (referred to as ‘Current Peak-Trough Index’) they concluded that the current S&P 500 index looks like it’s following a similar pattern and is set to peak in 15-16 months some 40% higher than the current level. That would have the S&P 500 topping out at somewhere around 1400-1500 (i.e. 5-10% less than the S&P 500’s record high of 1565 in October 2007) before crashing back to its 1994 low of 400 (when the stock market bubble first began) by the end of 2013 or early 2014.

Peculiar Variation Confirms Projections of Dent, Napier and Others
It is interesting to note that Merrill Lynch’s projections, based on this approach, mirror those of Russell Napier and Harry S. Dent Jr. whom I highlighted in a March, 2009 article entitled "Dent, Prechter and Others Warn that the Worst is yet to Come (Engulf Us)." Both men, independent of each other and based on their own unique approaches to market research, maintained a year ago that the S&P 500 would rally dramatically from early 2009 to mid-2010 (Dent saying the Dow would go to a high of 13,200 which, incidentally, would represent a 38% increase from last Friday’s close of 9544) only to slowly decline to a bottom of 400 or so by either 2012 (Dent) or 2014 (Napier).

Napier, who wrote "Anatomy of the Bear" and teaches at Edinburgh Business School in addition to being a strategist with CLSA Ltd., based his projections on Tobin’s "q" ratio which compares the market value of companies to their constituent parts. His projected low of 400 was conditional on deflation setting in, which has, because "with deflation the value of assets fall and the value of debt stay up crushing equities." No one was expecting deflation a year ago but we currently are in the midst of it which should cause us to reflect on the merits of Napier’s assertions. Below are the monthly inflation (deflation) rates year-to-date compliments of inflationdata.com:

0.03%, 0.24%, -0.38%, -0.74%, -1.28%, -1.43%, -2.10%

Relationship Suggests the HUI and GDM Could Rise to Record Highs
Year-to-date the HUI and GDM are up 20.6% and 18.6% respectively (see table below) or, on average, 41% greater than the S&P 500 increase YTD of 13.9%. If the S&P 500 were to appreciate 40% and the trend ratio between the broad stock market and the narrow large/medium cap precious metals mining sector were to continue one could expect the HUI and GDM to increase in the neighbourhood of 56% by year’s end. That would put the HUI at around 570 (10.6% above it’s all-time high of 515 in March 2007) and the GDM at about 1666 (7.2% above it’s all-time high of 1553 in March 2008.) The results of the comparative analysis seem plausible.

** Week ending August 28th, 2009

***CDNX is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index consisting of 558 micro/nano cap companies of which 44% are engaged in the mining, exploration and/or development of gold and/or silver and other mineral resources and 18% in oil or natural gas pursuits.
****HUI is the symbol of the AMEX Gold BUGS (Basket of Un-hedged Gold Stocks) Index and is a modified equal dollar-weighted index of 15 large/mid cap gold mining companies that do not hedge their gold beyond 1.5 years.
*****GDM is the symbol for the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and is a modified market capitalization weighted index of 31 large/mid/small cap gold and silver mining companies.
******SPTGD is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and is a modified market capitalization index of 19 large/mid cap precious metals mining companies.


Relationship Suggests Gold Could go to $1175 and Silver to $27.67
Were we to apply the same approach to the analysis of the short-term price for gold and silver a record price would result for gold and a dramatic increase would be realized in the price of silver. Gold has gone up only 8% YTD vis-à-vis the S&P 500’s 13.9% or 57.5% as much. Therefore, should the S&P 500 go up 40% one could expect, under this scenario, that gold would go up a further 23% (57.5% of 40%) which would put gold well above that ‘precious barrier’ of $1000 to a record $1175 by year’s end. Again, the results of the comparative analysis seem achievable.

Silver is up 30.3% YTD or 2.2 times that of the S&P 500. That would translate into an 87% price increase in the current price of silver from $14.72 as of last Friday to $27.50 by the end of 2009. The resulting number seems a bit far-fetched but that is what the analysis reveals for what it is worth.

Relationship Suggests the Micro/Nano-cap Category Could Set Record High
The CDNX is the proxy for the micro/nano-cap category of stocks and it is up 67% YTD in U.S. dollars. As such, if the micro/nano category were to continue to outperform the S&P 500 by the same ratio for the balance of the year the 40% increase in the S&P 500 would equate to a value of 3472 for the CDNX or 3% beyond the record high of 3370 reached in May 2007. The results of this comparative analysis seem possible on the surface but given the continuing tight credit situation such an advance in such a short period of time and at this particular point in time seems somewhat unlikely.

Relationship Suggests 33% of Warrants Would become Exercizable?
The above analyses suggests that, as the relationships currently stand between the S&P 500, the HUI and GDM indices, gold, silver and the micro/nano-cap category of stocks, were the S&P 500 to go up 40%, gold bullion might well go up 23%, large/medium cap gold and silver mining/royalty companies might go up by 60%, silver might go up as much as 87% and micro/nano-cap companies might go up by almost 200%. Since the 24-month plus duration warrants of commodity-related companies are up 75% more than their associated stocks, i.e. 112.3% vs. 64.2% YTD, according to information gleamed from preciousmetalswarrants.com’s free database, one would expect such warrants to appreciate in excess of 300% if the relationship holds true. If that were to happen a third of the 100 or so commodity-related warrants trading in the market would become exercisable enabling owners of same to reap major over-and-above returns.

The Hong Kong-based Merrill Lynch Asia strategists concluded their August 26 analysis by explaining that a 40% melt-up rally in the U.S. may be triggered by central bankers keeping interest rates low (and there is no evidence to the contrary at this point in time), an economic recovery (which there seems to be if we are to believe even a fraction of the ”green shoots” hype we have been hearing the past few weeks) or an undervalued dollar (which is debatable with many a convincing argument that the dollar is just the opposite and going to get much weaker).

Their analysis bears scrutiny and ongoing review for us to successfully navigate these troubled investment waters we all find ourselves currently in. It certainly would be nice to see the S&P 500 go up a further 40% in the next few months; gold and silver a further 23% and 87% respectively to set a base for even greater heights as the stock market crumbles; commodity-related large and medium-cap stocks a further 60%; micro and nano (penny) stocks go up 200% and a warrants with the right leverage/time values to go up in excess of 300%. Very nice indeed!

To my readers: I receive many e-mails with questions and comments regarding my articles and I make a point of replying to each and every one. Please feel free to drop me a line or two. If you are interested in writing an article we would be delighted in considering you as one of our periodic Guest Contributors. I am a guest speaker at the inaugural World MoneyShow in Toronto this coming October 22/23. If you attend please introduce yourself.

Lorimer Wilson (lorimer.wilson@live.com) is director of marketing and contributing editor of www.PreciousMetalsWarrants.com, which provides an online subscription database for all warrants trading on mining and other natural resource companies in the United States and Canada and offers a free weekly e-mail, and www.InsidersInsights.com, which alerts subscribers when corporate insiders of a limited number of junior mining and natural resource companies are buying and selling.

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sobre o minerio de ferro

esse texto é do site hellenic shipping news, mas a fonte é da bloomberg (dá para confiar?) Olhando o grafico dos preços do aço, não se ve sinal dessa baixa de que fla o texto.


Iron Ore Imports by China Drop 15% to a Six-Month Low Print E-mail
Saturday, 12 September 2009
ironor4_thumb_thumb.jpgIron ore imports by China, the world’s biggest buyer, dropped to the lowest level in six months as mills and traders cut purchases on declining steel prices. China bought 49.7 million metric tons of the steelmaking ingredient in August, general customs said today on its Web site. Shipments were 15 percent lower than the 58.1 million tons in July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Steel prices in China have fallen 18 percent in the past five weeks after an earlier gain spurred record production by mills including Baosteel Group Corp. Declining prices and iron ore imports may help the China Iron & Steel Association argue its case for lower ore prices from Vale SA, Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd.
“Steelmakers have been using their ore inventories instead of importing after steel prices fell,” said Hu Kai, a Shanghai- based analyst with industry publication Umetal.
Fortescue Metals Group Co., Australia’s third-largest iron ore exporter, fell 0.9 percent to A$4.22 in Sydney at 2:50 p.m. local time. Rival Murchison Metals Ltd. fell 3.2 percent to A$1.815.
Falling Prices.
Cash prices for iron ore delivered to China from India have fallen 26 percent to $82 a ton since August, according to Metal Bulletin prices for the week ended Sept. 4. Iron ore from Australia has fallen 28 percent since Aug. 13 to $76.1 a ton yesterday, according to the Steel Index.
Iron ore inventories at China’s major ports reached 76.5 million tons for the week ended Sept. 4, the highest level this year, according to data provided by Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.
For the first eight months, iron ore imports gained 32 percent to 405 million tons from a year ago, customs said.
Steel production rose 22 percent to a record 50.7 million tons last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said today, a fourth straight month of gains.
Steel-product exports from China were 2.08 million tons last month, the customs said. The shipment fell 68 percent to 13.2 million tons for the first eight months from a year ago, the customs said.
China became a net crude-steel importer for the first time in three years in March as the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus spending spurred domestic demand even as exports collapsed.

Source: Bloomberg

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analise fundamentalista semanal do oilngold

Oil N' Gold Focus Reports
Weekly Fundamental Outlook for Energies and Metals - Crude Oil Will Be Bounded Between 65-75 In Coming Months Print E-mail
ONG Focus - Insights
Written by Oil N' Gold | Sun Aug 30 09 03:22 ET

Early last week, worries on credit tightening by the Chinese Government triggered selloffs in risky assets. In the commodity universe, the base metal complex got the biggest hit as the government's massive stimulus plan has encouraged expansion in various industries. Should the government tighten lending, many projects may have to be postponed or cancelled.

However, later in the week, strong macro economic data boosted sentiment again and improved market sentiment helped commodities pared some of the losses made earlier. However, the Jefferies/Reuters CRB Index still lost -0.6% over the week.
Crude Oil

Crude oil price rose for the second consecutive day last Friday as encouraging economic data in the US increased market confidence on demand outlook. The benchmark contract added +0.3% to settle at 72.74. However, on weekly basis crude oil price still lost -1.9%.

Despite a test of 75 Tuesday, strong profit-taking pressure was seen as investors probably did not believe oil fundamentals justify crude oil at such high level. Inventory reports from API and US Energy Department, both showed significant crude builds, confirmed that the demand/supply outlook remained weak. This pushed oil price lower. On Thursday, buying interest emerged at level of around 70.Driven by robust market sentiment and rebound in stock markets, the black gold managed to pared some losses made earlier in the week.

WTI crude oil price will likely move within a range of 65-75 in coming months. It's undeniable that fundamental outlook has improved in recent months when compared with the first and second quarters of the year. Look at US inventory level, crude stockpiles dropped to 343.76 mmb in the week ended August 21, down -1.2% from 347.84 mmb 4 weeks ago and -8.4% from the peak (375.26 mmb) made in the week ended May 1. Gasoline inventory has also shown a decreasing trend.

However, the major worry is in distillate stockpile which has gained +19% year-to date. Moreover, the current level represented the highest level since 1985.

Furthermore, we believe the market should not overplay the improvement in fuel consumption. As we mentioned in the previous weekly report, despite the rise, fuel demand remained significantly below the level seen last few years.

In short, the current fundamentals do not justify a rise above 75.

However, positive economic data and signs of recovery will continue to prevent price from declining sharply. Second estimate of US GDP indicated that the nation's economy contracted -1%, same as the first estimate but better than market expectation of -1.4%. The reading points to a stronger third quarter.

Natural Gas

The October contract dropped -5.4% to 3.03 Friday although others in the energy complex climbed higher. Mild weather in the US, weak industrial demand and increase in production continued to put heavy downward pressure on price. The contract sank -6% over the week.

Demand for electricity accounts for around 29% of US gas consumption. However, the observatory forecast temperatures will be normal to below-normal and this greatly reduced the need for air-conditioner and hence lowered electricity demand.

According to Baker Hughes, the number of gas rigs increased for the 6th consecutive to 699 in the week ended August 28.

Precious Metals

Gold price surged +1.2% to settle at 958.8 Friday. While decline in USD and strength in stock markets helped supported price, data from ETF Securities showing that gold assets in the funds rose to a record high excited investors.

Look at the data provided by ETF Securities, gold holdings in its ETFs reduced after reaching a peak in June 2009. The decline was probably driven by diminished expectation on inflation and rather stagnant movement in USD. However, impressive capital inflows have been seen again early last week. Strong buying interest pushed gold holdings to 7989M oz as of August 27, the highest level on record.

Although asset holdings remained sluggish in SPDR Gold Trust, demand may rise should this round of investment inflows prove sustainable.

Silver soared +4% to 14.78 Friday. Over the week, the 'hybrid' of precious and industrial metal gained +4.4%, outperforming gold's +0.4% gain. Year-to-date, silver has risen +31% while gold has gained +8.4%. Looking into details, silver has outperformed gold in each of the quarters. In 1Q09, silver rose +15% while gold gained +4.6%. In 2Q09, silver rose +4.7% but gold only edged +0.26%. In 3Q09, silver has so far risen +8.7%, compared with gold +3.4%. While silver's underperformance in 2008 made it look relatively cheap this year, silver's major applications in industry and photography spurred demand as global economic outlook turns better.

Base Metals

Broad-based rally was seen Friday with LME lead for 3-month delivery jumping +4.8% to close at 2107. Over the week, lead was the best performer, gaining +14.1%, as closures of smelters in China spurred worries on supply.

2 smelters in Shaanxi and Hunan have been closed as over 2000 children living nearby were found to have excessive levels of lead in their blood. The market also worried that the Chinese government's stricter oversight on outdated lead smelter capacity would put further pressure on supply.

Both we and experts in the industry believe that the concern is overblown. Smelter capacity in China, the country that accounts for 35% of global lead production, is excessive as many plants are idle or with low utilization. Closure of substandard plants will not only eliminate excessive capacity but also encourage smelters that are environmentally friendly to be put in operation.

However, if the concern lasts, we think the next beneficiary would be zinc as around 8% of China's zinc supply comes from smelters also producing lead. If the shutdowns become widespread, zinc production will also be affected. Last week, LME zinc for 3-month delivery rose +2.6%.


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Latest Analysis from this Author

* Gold Weekly Technical Outlook (Saturday, 29 August 2009 07:05 ET)
* Silver Weekly Technical Outlook (Saturday, 29 August 2009 07:05 ET)
* Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook (Saturday, 29 August 2009 07:04 ET)
* Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook (Saturday, 29 August 2009 07:03 ET)
* Weekly Market Wrap-up (Friday, 28 August 2009 17:03 ET)

estudos

do bastter:

Análise atualizada para o dia 25/08/2009

• PETROBRAS PN, MAS QUE COISA!
Depois de um candle "mamãe queria ser forte mas amarelei" vem um bozu imenso vermelho deste e com volume alto. Até prova em contrário fez um topo. Mas foi tanto que fechou a janela e as vezes faz topo e fundo no mesmo candle.

Mas para quem vinha tão bonitinha, enfeio e agora quero ver as cenas dos próximos capítulos antes de me pronunciar. De qualquer forma temos um topo expressivamente mais alto se aqui for topo mesmo...

Dona Safira, depois não diz que eu não avisei...

Suportes: 33,00 - 30,80 - 30,00

Resistências: 33,50 - 35,00 - 40,00

Médias Móveis: MM200 em 30,96

Candle: Marobozu de queda que engolfa o anterior. Expressivo candle de topo e com volume.

Volatilidade: 27,97%


clique sobre o gráfico para ampliá-lo

Análise atualizada para o dia 25/08/2009

• VALE PN, O MEU É MAIS BONITO
A disputa é para quem desenha topo mais bonito. O da PETR é mais agressivo mas o da Vale também, uma baita estrela apontando para o céu, vermelha, com gap e com volume.

Mas também fez topo mais alto e rompeu o topo anterior. E agora, se for topo mesmo e esperar um fundo mais alto para continuar..

Suportes: 33,00 - 32,00 - 30,50

Resistências: 33,50 - 35,00 - 40,00

Médias Móveis: MME200 em 29,37 ainda angulada para cima.

Candle: Gravestone Doji de topo - O candle do cemitério...

Volatilidade: 34,35%


clique sobre o gráfico para ampliá-lo

minhas mensagens

coloco textos sobre ações e economia que considero interessantes.

carteiradeinvestimentos wordpress schwab

Este é o cache do Google de http://carteiradeinvestimento.wordpress.com/. Ele é um instantâneo da página com a aparência que ela tinha em 22 ago. 2009 02:37:35 GMT. A página atual pode ter sido alterada nesse meio tempo. Saiba mais

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Carteira de Investimento em Ações Schwabb – Ano III

* Apresentação
* Dicionário Financeiro
* Finanças Pessoais
* Imposto de Renda
* Links Schwabb
* Livros
* Psicologia de Mercado
* Regulamentação do Mercado

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Carteiras Recomendadas Schwabb by Schwabb is licensed under a Creative Commons Atribuição-Uso Não-Comercial-Vedada a Criação de Obras Derivadas 2.5 Brasil License.
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Agosto 2009 S T Q Q S S D
« Jul
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31

Revisão de Pontos 24/08
Agosto 21, 2009 — Schwabb

Carteira Semanal

LIGT3
Tem objetivo em 24.5 com R aos 24.35. É uma área muito congestionada e o papel precisará de força para alcançar o alvo primário em 24.85. Enfrenta dificuldades aos 24 e os 23.2 ainda ameaçam.

LUPA3

S em 21 com principal em 19.75 onde merece atenção para possível reversão. Uma possível tendência é congestionar próximo a R 22.35 com retração aos 21.65 e nova tentativa de rompimento durante a semana. Caso os 21.65 se percam, seguem os pontos de S anterioriores.

RDCD3

Segue desenvolvendo , com objetivo reduzido para 27.35 e que merece observação no seu rompimento. Houve confirmação de altas e há tendência de altas que podem alcançar no total ( desde o suporte indicado anteriormente) de aproximadamente 15 a 20%.


PRVI3
Objetivo reduzido para 5.2 e S aos 4.85 e 4.65. Na reversão de 5.2 , possibilidade de ganhos próximos a 10% sobre 20/08.

TCSL4
Papel de alto risco, e objetivo de adiantar-se à reversão. Possibilidade de quedas a 3.75 devem ser consideradas. Projeta 4.5 com R próximo a 4.2.

Carteira Mensal

STRP4
S em 0.29 e 0.31 (em teste). Projeção passa para 0.40 de 0.39, e nova R aos 0.34.

GPCP3
S aos 0.68 e outro aos 0.66 e o novo 0.63. Após a lateralização, o papel não desenvolveu para o seu objetivo e agora está confirmando a forma retangular com R passando para 0.78 de 0.80. A projeção no rompimento passa para 0.97 de 0.99.

HOOT4

S passa para 0.29 de 0.28 com baixa possibilidade de vir a alcançar 0.26 que é o S mais importante. 0.33 confirmado e passa a ser S.

LIXC4

Papel deve ser operado com atenção. Projeta nova alta na confirmação de S agora aos 3.25 de 3.3, com objetivo próximo a 3.6 onde, no seu rompimento, pode oferecer alta expressiva.
Publicado em Uncategorized. Deixar um comentário »
Curtas 21/08 PETR4 GPIV11 GVTT3 VALE5 ENBR3 CCRO3 SANB3 BVMF3 SCLE3
Agosto 21, 2009 — Schwabb
Hora Origem Indicador Anterior Projeção
08:00 IGP-M – 2ª prévia Ago. -0,62%
11:00 Vendas de Casas Existentes 4,89 M 5,03 M
11:00 FED – Discurso Bernanke - -


PETR4


A Petrobras anunciou ontem a descoberta de uma nova área com óleo leve (de maior valor comercial) na Bacia de Campos, fora da região do pré-sal. Levantamentos indicam que há no local 280 milhões de barris.

GPIV11


A GP Investimentos avalia, novamente, fazer aportes no setor sucroalcooleiro. A gestora de recursos uniu-se outra vez ao grupo São Martinho, de Pradópolis (SP), para a eventual compra de ativos nesse segmento.

GVTT3


Anúncio de oferta de ações reduzindo a participação de dois acionistas majoritários impactaram negativamente nas ações que registraram queda superior a 8%.

VALE5


A Vale desistiu de entrar na briga pela gigante americana de fertilizantes Mosaic

ENBR3


Os analistas do BofA Merrill Lynch revisaram as suas premissas e decidiram manter tanto a sua recomendação de compra quanto o preço-alvo de R$ 40,00 para as ações da companhia

CCRO3


O BB Investimentos iniciou a cobertura das ações com recomendação de ‘manutenção’, projetando um preço-alvo de R$ 34,22 para junho de 2010.

SANB3


O Santander Brasil acaba de captar US$ 100 milhões no exterior em duas transações de venda de papéis lastreados em ordens de pagamento do exterior ao Brasil, a chamada securitização de fluxos financeiros ou MT100. Uma empresa de propósito específico foi criada para emitir US$ 50 milhões em papéis de taxas flutuantes e mais US$ 50 milhões de taxas fixas. A emissão ganhou “A” pela Fitch Ratings. O Santander tem US$ 824 milhões de papéis MT100 nas mãos do mercado.

BVMF3


A BM&FBovespa negocia uma série de parcerias comerciais com as principais Bolsas latino-americanas. A ideia é permitir a negociação de ações e títulos desses países por investidores do Brasil, além de levar negócios com ativos brasileiros para as demais praças da região.

SCLE3


É “muito elevado” o risco de o setor agrícola brasileiro enfrentar uma nova e severa crise na safra 2009/2010. A projeção foi apresentada ontem pelo engenheiro agrônomo André Pessôa, diretor da consultoria Agroconsult. De acordo com ele, o pessimismo resulta da previsão de volumosas safras de soja e milho de Brasil, EUA e Argentina e, ao mesmo tempo, dos efeitos da crise mundial sobre a demanda e de uma mudança de estratégia da China, que ampliou seus estoques e fortaleceu seu poder de barganha.
Publicado em Uncategorized. Deixar um comentário »
Curtas 20/08
Agosto 20, 2009 — Schwabb
Hora Origem Indicador Anterior Projeção
09:30 Pedidos de Seguro Desemprego – Semanal 558 K 548 K
11:00 FED Filadélfia – Agosto -7,5 -1,9
11:00 Indicadores Antecedentes – Jul.


CLSC6


A Centrais Elétricas de Santa Catarina (Celesc) anunciou ontem que o lucro líquido ficou em R$ 84,3 milhões no segundo trimestre de 2009, uma redução de 41,8% em relação ao mesmo período de 2008. A receita operacional líquida da Companhia somou R$ 898 milhões, apresentando um crescimento de 3,4% em relação ao mesmo período de 2008 (R$ 868milhões).

ACGU3


A Açúcar Guarani pretende moer 14,8 milhões de toneladas de cana-de-açúcar na safra 2009/2010, o que representará um crescimento de 2,7% em relação ao verificado no ano passado (14,4 milhões)

GVTT3


A GVT entrou com um pedido para realizar uma oferta secundária de ações ordinárias ao mercado.

CSNA3


Através da emissão de uma cédula de crédito bancário no valor de R$ 2 bilhões, a Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional fez um empréstimo na Caixa Econômica Federal, cujo prazo de amortização é de 36 meses. E o endividamento financeiro da siderúrgica, que havia sido reduzido de R$ 11,99 bilhões para R$ 10,96 bilhões no final do primeiro semestre, voltou a crescer e está em R$ 12,96 bilhões. Como o último Ebtida se situa em R$ 1,085 bilhão, verifica-se que esse endividamento é 11,95 maior que a geração de caixa.

MRVE3


Santander revisou suas estimativas, mantendo a recomendação de manutenção para os ativos da incorporadora e elevando seu preço-alvo, de R$ 28,00 ao final de 2009 para R$ 42,00 ao final de 2010.

POMO4


A multinacional brasileira Marcopolo, fabricante de carrocerias de ônibus, pode fechar a fábrica de Portugal, a primeira filial do grupo fora do Brasil, inaugurada em 1990. A queda de demanda, intensificada com a crise internacional, levou a empresa a operar com alta ociosidade.

NETC4


A agência de classificação de risco Standard & Poor´s elevou os ratings de crédito em escala global da Net Serviços de Comunicação de “BB” para “BB+” e em escala nacional de “brAA-” para “brAA”. Segundo a S&P, a elevação do rating reflete a situação confortável da empresa, uma vez que a liderança no cabo e na alta qualidade dos serviços de banda larga irão apoiar a performance operacional resiliente. Em adição, o fluxo de caixa operacional tem suportado os investimentos necessários para o forte crescimento, mas com baixa alavancagem financeira.
Publicado em Uncategorized. Deixar um comentário »
Revisão de Pontos 19/08
Agosto 19, 2009 — Schwabb

Carteira Semanal


PRVI3
Papel com risco acima da média para operações, com objetivo de alta aos 5.25 onde se encontra R importante. Na continuidade da tendência atual pode fechar aos 4.65 onde há outro ponto relevante. S imediato a 4.83

LIGT3
Com possivel nova formação, tem-se teste em S 23.60, para buscar 24.45 (originado de S 24.35). Pelo lado das perdas, projeta 23.

LUPA3

Testes em 20.8 com S principal em 19.95 onde merece atenção para possível reversão. Objetivo passa a 22.6 de 22.8.

RDCD3

Com S confirmado ( antigo 25.85 ), passa a ter objetivo em 27.8. Ainda assim é preciso observar que não há confirmação de altas, como explicitado na revisão anterior.

Carteira Mensal

STRP4
S em 0.29 e 0.31 (em teste). Projeção passa para 0.40 de 0.39, e nova R aos 0.34.

GPCP3
S aos 0.68 e outro aos 0.66 e o novo 0.63. Após a lateralização, o papel não desenvolveu para o seu objetivo e agora está confirmando a forma retangular com R passando para 0.78 de 0.80. A projeção no rompimento passa para 0.97 de 0.99.

HOOT4

S passa para 0.29 de 0.28 com baixa possibilidade de vir a alcançar 0.26 que é o S mais importante. 0.33 confirmado e passa a ser S.

LIXC4

Papel deve ser operado com atenção. Projeta nova alta na confirmação de S agora aos 3.25 de 3.3, com objetivo próximo a 3.6 onde, no seu rompimento, pode oferecer alta expressiva.
Publicado em Uncategorized. 4 Comentários »
FMI alerta sobre fim dos estímulos fiscais nos EUA
Agosto 19, 2009 — Schwabb

O economista-chefe do FMI (Fundo Monetário Internacional) descreveu ontem uma recuperação mundial “nascente”, mas afirmou que as autoridades econômicas dos Estados Unidos teriam dificuldade para definir o momento exato em que as medidas de estímulo fiscal devem ser descontinuadas. Olivier Blanchard escreveu que uma recuperação na confiança dos consumidores dos Estados Unidos e a elevação nas exportações norte-americanas aos países superavitários da Ásia eram necessários como substitutos dos gastos públicos elevados.

Mas, em um estudo publicado pelo FMI, ele afirmou que “está claro” que a retomada do equilíbrio poderia não acontecer, “ao menos não na escala requerida”. Sem uma recuperação na demanda externa por bens dos Estados Unidos, “que ocupam posição central em qualquer recuperação mundial”, as medidas de estímulo podem ser mantidas por tempo longo demais -o que elevaria de forma indesejável a dívida do país- ou abolidas antes da hora -o que colocaria em risco a recuperação.

Caso os déficits fiscais sejam mantidos por tempo longo demais, segundo Blanchard, poderia haver “preocupações sobre os títulos do Tesouro norte-americano e o dólar [...], e isso causaria forte fuga de capital dos Estados Unidos. Poderia haver desvalorização do dólar, mas de maneira desordenada, o que geraria um novo episódio de instabilidade e alta incerteza, o que por sua vez poderia tirar dos trilhos a recuperação”.

Japão, França e Alemanha retomaram o crescimento no segundo trimestre, de acordo com dados econômicos divulgados nos últimos dias, e a maioria dos economistas acredita que a recessão nos Estados Unidos tenha acabado ou esteja chegando ao fim.

Fonte: Folha

Publicado em Uncategorized. Deixar um comentário »
Aneel freia internet pela rede elétrica
Agosto 19, 2009 — Schwabb

Foi retirado de pauta da reunião de ontem da Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (Aneel) o processo que trata das regras de uso da rede de distribuição de energia elétrica para a banda larga. A tecnologia, conhecida como power line communication (PLC), já foi regulamentada pela Agência Nacional de Telecomunicações (Anatel).

Não há nova data para que o tema volte ao debate. A Aneel deverá avaliar juridicamente a proposta feita pela Eletropaulo de que os ganhos com o serviço, pelas distribuidoras, sejam repassados às tarifas de energia a cada quatro ou cinco anos.

Fonte: AE

Publicado em Uncategorized. 1 Comentário »
Xangai despenca 4,3% e pressiona outras bolsas da região
Agosto 19, 2009 — Schwabb

Os principais mercados asiáticos fecharam em forte baixa nesta quarta-feira (19), após a breve recuperação registrada no dia anterior. Fatores locais influenciaram as bolsas chinesas, que fizeram desabar num efeito dominó os demais mercados da região.

As preocupações de que Pequim poderá não atuar agressivamente no curto prazo para dar suporte ao mercado fizeram as Bolsas da China despencar, com a baixa nos preços das commodities estimulando as vendas no setor de recursos naturais. O índice Xangai Composto desabou 4,3% e encerrou aos 2.785,58 pontos. O índice já caiu 20% desde o recorde de pontuação do ano, atingido em 4 de agosto; ainda assim, acumula ganho de 57% este ano e de 67% desde a mínima de 2008, o que pode sinalizar mais quedas à frente. Alguns analistas acreditam que o índice pode chegar aos 2,6 mil pontos nas próximas semanas, antes que os representantes do governo adotem medidas mais específicas para melhorar o sentimento. Já o índice Shenzhen Composto recuou 4,9% e terminou aos 921,32 pontos. Jiangxi Copper baixou 8,4% e Yunnan Copper teve queda de 8,7%. Já os papéis da Western Mining perderam 9,3%. Everbright Securities, que subiu 30% em sua estreia ontem, caiu 10%, limite diário de queda.

O yuan caiu marginalmente ante o dólar, uma vez que os investidores procuraram a segurança da divisa norte-americana depois que as ações locais caíram fortemente. Apesar de a volatilidade no mercado de câmbio ter aumentado nas últimas sessões, o dólar permaneceu em sua recente banda entre 6,8300 e 6,8400 yuans e é possível que continue aí no futuro próximo, uma vez que o banco central da China mantém sua política monetária para dar suporte à retomada da economia do país, disseram traders. No mercado de balcão, o dólar fechou cotado a 6,8341 yuans, de 6,8339 yuans do fechamento de terça-feira.

A Bolsa de Hong Kong caiu abaixo dos 20 mil pontos, liderada pelas perdas nas ações do peso pesado HSBC e China Mobile e no embalo do forte declínio nos mercados chineses. O índice Hang Seng perdeu 352,04 pontos, ou 1,7%, e encerrou aos 19.954,23 pontos, o pior fechamento desde 24 de julho. HSBC desabou 1,5%, mesmo porcentual de baixa de China Mobile, que apresentará amanhã seu balanço do primeiro semestre.

A Bolsa de Taipé, em Taiwan, fechou estável. Com fraco volume de negociações, o índice Taiwan Weighted caiu apenas 1,19 ponto e terminou aos 6.788,58 pontos, com os investidores na expectativa da divulgação amanhã dos números do PIB do segundo trimestre. O setor de cimento sofreu com a realização de lucros. Já a eletrônica Wistron subiu 0,9%.

Na Coreia do Sul, a influência negativa das bolsas da China impediu que a Bolsa de Seul sustentasse seus ganhos iniciais. O índice Kospi recuou 0,3% e fechou aos 1.545,96 pontos. Posco baixou 0,2% e o estaleiro Hyundai Heavy Industries Shipbuilder caiu 3,8%. Mas a expectativa de melhora nos resultados impulsionou montadoras e fabricantes de eletrônicos. Samsung avançou 1,1% e Hyundai Motor ganhou 4,3%.

Na Austrália, a queda do índice S&P/ASX 200 da Bolsa de Sydney foi de 0,2%, aos 4.373,8 pontos. Mas os resultados melhores do que o esperado da Woodside Petroleum e da Qantas levaram essas ações a fechar em altas de 3,7% e 3,5%, respectivamente. BHP Billiton baixou 1,5% e Rio Tinto subiu 2,3%.

Nas Filipinas, o índice PSE da Bolsa de Manila teve elevação de 1,1% e fechou aos 2.760,89 pontos. Na Bolsa de Cingapura, as ações não conseguiram sustentar os ganhos do começo da sessão e fecharam em baixa, refletindo a fraqueza do mercado chinês. O índice Straits Times perdeu 1,8% e fechou aos 2.522,78 pontos.

O índice composto da Bolsa de Jacarta, na Indonésia, caiu 2,5% e fechou aos 2.277,75 pontos, afetado pelas quedas generalizadas os mercados asiáticos. O índice SET da Bolsa de Bangcoc, na Tailândia, recuou 1,4% e fechou aos 631,28 pontos, também contaminado pelas perdas em Xangai e a ausência de boas notícias, que motivou realizações de lucros.

O índice composto de cem blue chips da Bolsa de Kuala Lumpur caiu 0,8% e fechou aos 1.155,53 pontos, com a queda na China estimulando a venda. As informações são da Dow Jones.

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Curtas 19/08 ELET6 SMTO3 CSAN3 SBSP3 LLXL3 PETR4 ITUB4 AMBV4 JHSF3CSNA3 EMBR3 HOOT4 JBDU3
Agosto 19, 2009 — Schwabb
Hora Origem Indicador Anterior Projeção
09:30 Estoques de Petroleo – Semanal 2,5 M -


ELET6


A Eletrobrás revelou seu resultado operacional referente ao segundo trimestre deste ano, atingindo prejuízo líquido de R$ 2,090 bilhões, ante lucro líquido de R$ R$ 142,8 milhões obtido entre abril e junho do ano passado.

SMTO3

CSAN3


Os analistas do Citi reiteraram sua visão positiva para a indústria brasileira, reiterando assim a recomendação para as ações da Cosan e São Martinho, que levam preços-alvo de R$ 25,00 e R$ 18,00, respectivamente.

SBSP3


A Sabesp e o prefeito de Itupeva assinaram a autorização para o início das obras da Estação de Tratamento de Esgoto (ETE) Mica Preta. A companhia irá investir R$ 13 milhões na obra, que beneficiará a cidade 42,5 mil habitantes. A ETE será concluída em 2011 e, até 2012, Itupeva será um município com os serviços de saneamento universalizados.

LLXL3


A Brascan Corretora iniciou a cobertura das ações da LLX (LLXL3), concedendo a elas uma recomendação “outperform” (acima da média do mercado) e projetando um preço-alvo para o final deste ano de R$ 8,01

PETR4


A Petrobras informou à ANP uma nova descoberta de indícios de petróleo no bloco BS-500, situado na bacia de Santos, localizada na região Sudeste.

TOTS3


Spinelli reiterou sua recomendação de “compra”, elevando o preço-alvo esperado para as ações da companhia de R$ 63,00 para R$ 95,40

ITUB4


O Itaú Unibanco Banco Múltiplo passa a se chamar Itaú Unibanco Holding (ITUB4) eanunciou aumento do capital social para R$ 45 bilhões, mediante capitalização de reservas de lucros e bonificação de 10% em ações.

AMBV4


Ações da AmBev recebem recomendação neutra do JP Morgan e faz ressalva para penalidade estabelecida pelo CADE de US$ 185 milhões.

JHSF3


A incorporadora paulista JHSF está negociando a venda do shopping Metrô Santa Cruz, na zona sul de São Paulo. O negócio, de cerca de 200 milhões de reais, está sendo mediado pelo banco Itaú e será concluído nas próximas semanas. Fontes ligadas à negociação afirmam que a empresa ainda tem grande necessidade de reforçar seu caixa para tocar outros projetos em curso.

CSNA3


A Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) informou ontem, em curto comunicado ao mercado, ter contratado empréstimo de R$ 2 bilhões com a Caixa Econômica Federal (CEF), por meio da emissão de cédula de crédito bancário, numa operação com prazo de amortização de 36 meses.

EMBR3


Se quiser manter sua operação em Harbin, no norte da China, a Embraer terá de fabricar novos modelos de aviões na unidade chinesa, avalia o governo brasileiro. A empresa enfrenta problemas no país asiático, como cancelamento de pedidos e restrições para obter licenças de importação, e já estuda até fechar as portas da fábrica.

PETR4


A Petrobras planeja investir nas suas atividades tradicionais e no pré-sal, R$ 174 bilhões entre 2009 e 2013. Cerca de R$ 74 bilhões serão do caixa da empresa, e R$ 28,9 bilhões ao pré-sal. O objetivo, também, é que 65% a 70% dos projetos sejam implementados com fornecedores brasileiros.

HOOT4


A Rede Othon resolveu apostar alto no mundo eletrônico. Da renovação do website da rede hoteleira à utilização de marketing de relacionamento, através dos diferentes canais de omunicação, nenhum recurso disponível foi deixado de lado.

JBDU3


O empenho do Congresso Nacional trouxe às empresas exportadoras nova esperança de finalmente obter o Crédito Prêmio do IPI (CP) relativo ao Decreto-lei 491/69, se vier a ser aplicado o princípio da razoabilidade.
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Curtas 18/08 PETR4 LUPA3 TNLP4 LLXL3 TBLE3 AMBV4 VALE5
Agosto 18, 2009 — Schwabb
Hora Origem Indicador Anterior Projeção
07:00 IPC – Fipe 2ª quadrissemana Ago. - 0,45%
08:00 IGP-10 – Ago -0,35% -0,70%
09:30 Permissão para Construção – Jul. 0,57 M 0,58 M
09:30 PPI – Jul. 1,8% -0,2%
09:30 Núcleo do PPI 0,5% 0,1%
09:30 Construção de Casas Novas – Jul. 0,58 M 0,60 M


PETR4


A principal área responsável pelo lucro da Petrobras no segundo trimestre deixou de ser o segmento de exploração de petróleo e passou a ser o de abastecimento. O motivo é que a estatal não reduziu os preços da gasolina e do diesel em meio a uma conjuntura de queda na cotação do barril de petróleo. Essa é a análise de Adriano Pires, consultor do Cbie (Centro Brasileiro de Infraestrutura).

LUPA3


A Aspro do Brasil comunicou que assinou contrato com a Cameron Compression System, o que permitirá à companhia entrar no mercado latino-americano de compressores para o setor de petróleo e gás.

TNLP4


UBS Pactual recomenda compra e sugere preço-alvo de R$ 42,00 tendo como maior atrativo o yeld do fluxo de caixa descontado que gira em torno de 18%.

LLXL3


O Ministério Público Federal ajuizou ação civil pública pedindo a suspensão das obras do Porto do Açu, empreendimento de R$ 3 bilhões da LLX, braço de logística do grupo EBX, do empresário Eike Batista. A alegação é de irregularidades na aprovação e implementação do projeto.

TBLE3


Analistas da Ativa Corretora revisaram suas estimativas para a Tractebel revelando um novo preço-alvo de R$ 26,47 por ação para junho de 2010. A recomendação da corretora é de compra para os papéis da companhia.

AMBV4


As ações da AmBev são recomendadas como “neutral” (neutro) pelos analistas do JP Morgan, que classificam suas estimativas como conservadoras.

VALE5


Em relatório publicado nesta segunda-feira, analistas do Citi revisaram suas projeções para o preço do minério de ferro em 2010 e 2011, reiterando a recomendação de compra para as ações da Vale.
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Ibovespa deverá contar com 65 ações em sua composição a partir do próximo mês
Agosto 17, 2009 — Schwabb

A BM&F Bovespa divulgou nesta segunda-feira (17) a segunda prévia para a carteira teórica do Ibovespa , o principal índice da bolsa paulista, que vigorará entre os dias 1º de setembro e 30 de dezembro de 2009.

Assim como a primeira prévia apontava, em relação à carteira vigente entre maio e agosto deste ano, as novidades são a entrada das ações ordinárias da MMX Mineração MMXM3 e a saída dos papéis ordinários da Brasil Telecom Participações do portfólio.

Dessa forma, se confirmados os dados desta segunda prévia, o número de ações que fazem parte da composição do índice deve ser mantido em 65 no próximo quadrimestre. Entretanto, as ponderações dos papéis listados serão modificadas.

Premissas

A escolha dos papéis componentes do Índice Bovespa, bem como suas respectivas ponderações, atendeu aos seguintes critérios básicos:

* os 65 ativos escolhidos estiveram entre os 80% do índice de negociabilidade;
* apresentaram liquidez em pelo menos 80% dos pregões até o dia 14 de agosto;
* movimentaram pelo menos 0,1% do volume total da Bovespa.

Confira as principais alterações:
Destaque de ganhos absolutos Destaque de perdas absolutas
Redecard PN +0,635 p.p. Petrobras PN -1,527 p.p.
Aracruz PNB +0,341 p.p. Itau Unibanco PN -0,344 p.p.
BM&F Bovespa ON +0,221 p.p. CSN ON -0,325 p.p.

Destaque de ganhos relativos Destaque de perdas relativas
Light ON +35,00% Nossa Caixa ON -23,45%
Aracruz PNB +34,13% Comgás PNA -10,38%
Redecard PN +31,12% CSN ON -9,56%

Os cinco ativos que apresentaram o maior peso na composição do índice foram Petrobras PN (15,078%); Vale PNA (12,136%), Itaú Unibanco PN (5,565%), BM&F Bovespa ON (4,463%) e Bradesco PN (3,843%).

Fonte: Infomoney
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HOOT4 – Othon registra alta de 45% no lucro operacional no 1S 2009
Agosto 17, 2009 — Schwabb

A crise econômica não impediu que rede Othon registrasse no primeiro semestre um lucro operacional 45% superior aos seis primeiros meses do ano passado e uma receita 15% maior. A taxa média de ocupação dos hotéis em julho no Rio chegou próxima dos 80%. Os resultados foram comemorados pelo presidente da rede Othon, Fernando Chabert.”Mesmo com a crise os resultados obtidos pela rede Othon foram excelentes. Felizmente com o aquecimento do mercado doméstico não sentimos os efeitos da crise e nem da gripe suína. Diante deste resultado estamos bastante otimistas e acredito que venhamos superar largamente os resultados obtidos no ano passado, já que tradicionalmente o segundo semestre apresenta resultados melhores do que os seis primeiros meses do ano”, explica.Chabert confirma também as informações de que a rede pretende investir no mercado nacional em praças como São Paulo, Brasília e Nordeste. “A nossa intenção é em função de toda a reformulação que os hotéis Othon passaram e dos resultados obtidos, queremos ampliar a rede firmando contratos de gestão de novos hotéis que tenham características similares aos da rede”, admitiu.O dirigente lembra que até 2014 o planejamento estratégico da rede prevê a continuidade de reformas das unidades como já aconteceu com os hotéis Olina, Leme Palace e Rio Othon. Chabert descartou ter recebido propostas concretas para compra da rede por parte de outros investidores fossem eles nacionais ou estrangeiros.A diretoria do grupo Othon promoveu esta semana no Rio um seminário interno com diretores e funcionários para discussão das estratégias comerciais para 2010 e uma análise do comportamento da rede nos primeiros seis meses do ano. Segundo Tomás Ramos, diretor comercial da rede, os resultados superaram as expectativas.”Foi bastante produtivo este encontro pois temos oportunidade de promover uma saudável troca de idéias e também é algo bastante motivacional para recarregarmos as baterias e enfrentar os desafios que teremos pela frente neste segundo semestre”, admitiu.

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Curtas 17/08 CLSC6 SDIA4 BPNM4 PETR4 MMXM3 UNIP6 BRAP4 AEDU11 PINE4 SMTO3
Agosto 17, 2009 — Schwabb


CLSC6


A Celesc encerrou o primeiro semestre com lucro líquido de R$ 76 milhões, 65,5% menor do que o obtido no mesmo período do ano passado, que atingiu R$ 220,8 milhões. No segundo trimestre, a estatal de energia do Estado obteve lucro líquido de R$ 84,3 milhões, cifra também inferior aos R$ 144,8 milhões dos mesmos meses do ano passado.

SDIA4


A Sadia obteve lucro líquido de R$ 346,3 milhões no segundo trimestre deste ano, 124,8% maior que o do mesmo período do ano passado. Mas como fechou o primeiro trimestre com prejuízo, a empresa encerrou o semestre com lucro de R$ 154 milhões. A receita bruta do trimestre ficou em R$ 2,974 bilhões, 1,1% maior frente a igual período de 2008. A queda do dólar permitiu resultado financeiro de R$ 606,5 milhões, bem superior aos R$ 6,5 milhões do mesmo período do ano passado.

BPNM4


O Banco Panamericano mostrou lucro líquido de R$ 51,1 milhões no segundo trimestre deste ano, o que corresponde a um declínio de 42,9% em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado.

PETR4


A Petrobras e a Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) negociam um amplo acordo de cooperação nas áreas de biocombustíveis, refino, petroquímica e gestão. Os entendimentos estão em fase adiantada e vão permitir ampliar a parceria entre as estatais, que têm, desde 2005, um convênio de cooperação tecnológica na área de exploração e produção.

MMXM3


Reverteu prejuízo de R$ 148,3 milhões do 1T09 anunciando lucro líquido de R$ 26,5 milhões no 2T09.

UNIP6


Anunciou lucro líquido de R$ 96 milhões no 2T09. O EBITDA consolidado no ano ficou em R$ 262 milhões, 30% maior que em 2008.

BRAP4


Lucro líquido da Bradespar cresce 58,9% e totaliza R$ 488,2 milhões no trimestre.

AEDU11


Encerrou o 2T09 com lucro líquido de R$ 11,8 milhões, conseguindo reverter o prejuízo de R$ 33,1 milhões reportado no mesmo período do ano passado.

PINE4


O Banco Pine fechou o segundo trimestre com lucro líquido de R$ 21,8 milhões, com recuo de 50% em relação ao mesmo período de 2008. O retorno anualizado sobre o patrimônio líquido médio caiu de 23,1% para 11,1%. Já o Banco Sofisa encerrou o segundo trimestre com lucro líquido de R$ 2,05 milhões, 92% menos que em igual período de 2008.

SMTO3


O grupo São Martinho, de Pradópolis (SP), encerrou o primeiro trimestre da safra 2009/10 com receita líquida de R$ 217,4 milhões, alta de 136% sobre o mesmo período do ciclo 2008/09. No mesmo período, a companhia registrou lucro líquido de R$ 29 milhões, ante prejuízo de R$ 26 milhões no mesmo trimestre do ano anterior.
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Não compre apenas porque foi recomendada. AVALIE o melhor momento de compra e se o papel encaixa no seu estilo de operar. As vezes pode acontecer de levar alguns dias para que se tenha um melhor ponto de entrada. Leia sempre todos os avisos e alertas postados no blog e nas colunas. Este blog não tem caráter profissional e todas as informações disponibilizadas são gratuitas.

Carteira Mensal

Agosto 2009

STRP4
GPCP3
HOOT4
LIXC4


Comentários sobre as Carteiras de Julho e Junho CLIQUE AQUI

Atenção para as mudanças em relação aos comentários CLIQUE AQUI .

Texto: Carteira Schwabb, Estratégia e Rentabilidade , por Schwabb CLIQUE AQUI

Rentabilidade Anual da Carteira Schwabb em 2009
+ 112.27%

Rentabilidade da Carteira Schwabb desde 2008
+ 89.43%

Rentabilidade Anual Ibovespa 2009
+ 45.85%

Rentabilidade Ibovespa desde 2008
+ 4.62%


Carteira Semanal Schwabb

24 a 28/08

LUPA3
LIGT3
RDCD3
PRVI3
TCSL4 (a)

ps: sempre tenha atenção ao Ibovespa
(a) risco acima da média


Busque pelos pontos revistos (no mínimo) semanalmente CLICANDO AQUI

A Carteira Semanal tem como objetivo ganhos em prazos super reduzidos (até 5 dias) e rápido giro de capital (com realizações à partir de 3% para papéis de alta liquidez) com base em análise gráfica ou em tendência aparente de mercado. Os papéis listados são parte dos papéis que estão ou deverão estar em boas condições de negócios na semana, segundo projeções pessoais. As oportunidades de compra e venda podem ocorrer (se ocorrerem) em qualquer dia da semana, inclusive por mais de uma vez. A novidade é que para a escolha dos papéis não serão usados indicadores ou osciladores. Lembrando que a escolha desta Carteira é com base no fechamento do pregão de sexta-feira. Opere com segurança utilizando o Estilo Schwabb.


Carteira Semanal dos Usuários do Chat

17 a 21/08

KSSA3
FHER3
CNFB4
GFSA3

A Carteira acima é formada pelos investidores frequentadores do Chat que se reunem aos finais de semana para discutirem os papéis sugeridos por eles.

Carteira de Projeção Fixa Schwabb


HOOT4
Entrada em: 01/08
Objetivo:0.58*
Realizada em:
*perde 0.03 por mês a partir de 01/08

FNAM11
Entrada em: 22/06
Objetivo: 0.22
Realizada em:

VAGV4*
Entrada em: 01/06
Alvo Primário: indef
Realizada em:

VPSC4*
Entrada em: 01/06
Alvo Primário: indef
Realizada em:

VPTA4*
Entrada em: 01/06
Alvo Primário: indef
Realizada em:
*no aguardo de decisão judicial (não há prazo).

AGRO3
Entrada em: 01/06
Alvo Primário: 12
Realizada em:

TLPP4
Entrada em: 04/08
Objetivo: 51
Realizada em:

SEBB11
Entrada em: 14/08
Alvo Primário: 18.5
Realizada em:

CMIG4
Entrada em: 04/08
Objetivo: 30
Realizada em:

IDVL4*
Entrada em: 04/08
Objetivo: 10
Realizada em:


Para histórico de papéis desta Carteira CLIQUE AQUI

A Carteira de Projeção Fixa está voltada para possíveis oportunidades em um prazo que pode se extender além de 30 dias (normalmente não mais de 90 dias), incluindo recomendadas em outras carteiras que não seguiram as projeções dentro do prazo das mesmas, mas que mantem perspectivas positivas de valorização. É voltado para os que não possuem tempo de acompanhar o mercado, queiram destinar parte do capital em um ativo menos liquido, e tenha baixa aversão ao risco. O preço alvo é apenas uma projeção gráfica. Não leva em conta fluxos de caixa, mas sim melhores condições de mercado que permitam valorização dos papéis. Portanto, atenção em caso de quedas do Ibovespa ou fatos relevantes que possam prejudicar a projeção. Por não acompanhar o mercado, lembre-se que o seu risco é maior. A operação desses papéis DEVE seguir o Estilo Schwabb.

Antes de investir em um papel aqui exposto, conheça o que é, como funciona e quais os objetivos a Carteira Recomendada Schwabb CLICANDO AQUI

Independentemente da Carteira de Ações que escolher, estude gráficos , múltiplos e/ou perspectivas setoriais para cada papel conforme o seu prazo de investimento. Não compre sem avaliar. Utilize a Regra de Ouro CLIQUE AQUI . Determine sua estratégia antes de efetuar uma compra.


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Atualizado em
03 Agosto 09

carteira recomendada schwabb é líder de rentabilidade
Enquanto boa parte das carteiras ainda estão recuperando as perdas de 2008, a Carteira Schwabb já tem ganhos acima dos 89% (rentabilidade mínima). Isto mostra como é possível bater estratégias de fundamentos de longo prazo com o curto prazo e com risco reduzido através do Estilo Schwabb.

comentários
atenção para as mudanças em relação aos comentários LEIA MAIS . Se vc postar um comentário e ele não aparecer de imediato, não há necessidade de duplicá-lo. O seu comentário apenas foi filtrado pelo sistema, e fica no aguardo de aprovação. Este filtro é próprio do sistema e serve para proteger o blog de SPAMs.

consórcios e imposto de renda
o blog não dá mais nenhum suporte sobre comentários referentes a consórcios e imposto de renda, conforme avisos postados nos tópicos de referência.

base de dados
não deixe de visitar a base de dados ! lá vc encontra um conjunto das principais ferramentas disponíveis no mercado para facilitar o seu dia a dia.

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