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Bosi, quando o bosi chegar lá, recomprar a opção vendida.
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domingo, 22 de novembro de 2009
sobre preços do minerio de ferro
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Ore prices not so iron-clad
CHRIS ZAPPONE
November 20, 2009
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Update A bonanza in new iron ore mining projects may herald lower prices in coming years as capacity begins to catch up with rising Asian demand, according to a long-time industry watcher.
Fat Prophets resource analyst Nick Raffan said he sees parallels between the current flurry of investment in new and expanded mines aimed at satisfying China's iron ore hunger and the rush to meet Japanese coal orders in the late 1970s from new mines in Queensland, the Hunter Valley in NSW and elsewhere.
The latter surge led to an over-supply and subsequent price slump for the energy source that lasted decades.
''Traditionally, miners have never been able to stop themselves eventually from over-producing,'' said Mr Raffan. ''It's in their nature.''
Australia remains dependent on commodities for more than half its exports, with shipments to China of iron-ore and related concentrates alone worth $22.1 billion in 2008-09, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Apart from helping to narrow Australia's trade gap, rising commodity prices and volumes bolster state and federal coffers.
In volume terms, Australia exported 323.3 million metric tonnes of iron ore and pellets to China in 2008-09, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Expansion under way
While Mr Raffan acknowledges the strength of the current up-swing in iron ore as Asian economies - particularly China's - rebound from last year's slump, he says there is a risk miners in Australia and elsewhere are increasing production too quickly.
As of October, investments in Australia to expand or develop resources totalled $112.5 billion, ABARE numbers said this week. Iron ore mining or infrastructure capex projects accounted for about 15 per cent of that total, with nearly 40 additional projects under consideration.
Nor is Australia alone in undertaking large investments to expand capacity. Vale, the Brazilian competitor to BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, said last month it will spend $US12.9 billion ($14 billion) to raise production and exports, including funding two new iron ore mines.
Bloomberg reports Vale expects to export 140 million tons of iron ore to China this year.
Meanwhile China, which is producing about half the world's steel, is investing in mining capacity of its own. Projects include mines in Australia, Africa and South America.
Mr Raffan doesn't think the additional Brazil's output, nor China's own investments, is on the minds of local resource project developers.
''I think everyone sees things through rose-coloured glasses at the moment," he said.
Sky-high hopes
BHP Billiton's chief executive officer Marius Kloppers reiterated his company's confidence in China's demand for resources holding up.
In a speech this week to the Lowy Institute, Mr Kloppers said China would build 50,000 skyscrapers over the next 20 years, or 600 times the number Sydney now has.
Also fuelling China's resource hunger will be further urbanisation, with the country expected to have 220 cities of more than one million people by 2030, compared with Europe's total of 35 now.
Such confidence in China's growth is helping to nudge iron ore prices higher after a drop of about a third last year.
Spot prices for iron ore recently climbed to $US104 a tonne, while a consensus of analysts polled by Bloomberg forecasts the contract price for iron ore - about $US60 a tonne before freight - to rise by 14 per cent next year.
While China's economic growth this year has surprised on the upside, some analysts are raising doubts about its reliance once massive state spending and directed lending subside.
Credit Suisse, a Swiss bank, points to signs that the economy is losing some momentum, comparing China's yearly industrial production rate with the PMI new orders index - a gauge of manufacturing activity.
China's industrial production rose 16.1 per cent in the year to October year-on-year, from 13.9 per cent the month before, according to the latest figures. The PMI new orders index, though, fell in October to 57.6 from 58.
''Going forward, if Chinese banks only lend at a RMB 200-250 billion ($32-40 billion) per month pace, we will see fixed asset investment growth slow, consistent with less support for commodity prices,'' said Credit Suisse analyst Damien Boey.
An export recovery may help China if its banks slow lending to avoid asset bubbles, he said. ''But certainly, growth will not be as good as it was post-first half stimulus,'' he said.
Flattening trajectory
Mine Life senior analyst Gavin Wendt said he's not as pessimistic on prices as some, but based on the influx of new mining projects, ''it's getting harder to see the same price run-ups.''
''The rising price trajectory is going to flatten off even as the demand continues to increase from China and India,'' he said.
The price for ore will move in a range between $US80-$US120 per tonne over the next couple of years, Mr Wendt said, easing in the long term to a $US80-$US100 range as new production comes on-stream.
Mr Wendt said the Chinese lining up to partner with Australian miners are trying to ensure price stability in the years to come by expanding sources of production as the Japanese did with coal beginning in the 1980s.
Macquarie view
The dim views don't accord with those of Macquarie Bank analyst Jim Lennon, Bloomberg News reported today.
Mr Lennon predicts global commodity demand will have a steady recovery next year, with China leading consumption.
China accounted for about 50 per cent of global commodity demand this year, up from about a third a year ago, Lennon said at a conference in Hong Kong.
Metal prices have rallied 81 per cent this year in London on Chinese purchases, and as a weaker dollar and expectations that the world is poised to recover from its worst recession since World War II stoked demand. Investors raised holdings in commodities to the highest levels in at least three years, BOfA Merrill Lynch Global Research said.
''The leap in demand for commodities in China this year has been quite staggering,'' Lennon said. ''You can see where these commodities are going by the increase in production in China of goods like autos.''
Steel production in China this year may jump to 570 million metric tons, up from about 500 million tons last year, Lennon said. Macquarie's forecast compares with the 565 million tons predicted by the China Iron & Steel Association yesterday.
czappone@fairfax.com.au
Business Day, with Bloomberg News
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Ore prices not so iron-clad
CHRIS ZAPPONE
November 20, 2009
Ads by Google
iron ore
Global iron ore price,market reportsuppliers and buyers center
www.ferroalloynet.com/
Update A bonanza in new iron ore mining projects may herald lower prices in coming years as capacity begins to catch up with rising Asian demand, according to a long-time industry watcher.
Fat Prophets resource analyst Nick Raffan said he sees parallels between the current flurry of investment in new and expanded mines aimed at satisfying China's iron ore hunger and the rush to meet Japanese coal orders in the late 1970s from new mines in Queensland, the Hunter Valley in NSW and elsewhere.
The latter surge led to an over-supply and subsequent price slump for the energy source that lasted decades.
''Traditionally, miners have never been able to stop themselves eventually from over-producing,'' said Mr Raffan. ''It's in their nature.''
Australia remains dependent on commodities for more than half its exports, with shipments to China of iron-ore and related concentrates alone worth $22.1 billion in 2008-09, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Apart from helping to narrow Australia's trade gap, rising commodity prices and volumes bolster state and federal coffers.
In volume terms, Australia exported 323.3 million metric tonnes of iron ore and pellets to China in 2008-09, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Expansion under way
While Mr Raffan acknowledges the strength of the current up-swing in iron ore as Asian economies - particularly China's - rebound from last year's slump, he says there is a risk miners in Australia and elsewhere are increasing production too quickly.
As of October, investments in Australia to expand or develop resources totalled $112.5 billion, ABARE numbers said this week. Iron ore mining or infrastructure capex projects accounted for about 15 per cent of that total, with nearly 40 additional projects under consideration.
Nor is Australia alone in undertaking large investments to expand capacity. Vale, the Brazilian competitor to BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, said last month it will spend $US12.9 billion ($14 billion) to raise production and exports, including funding two new iron ore mines.
Bloomberg reports Vale expects to export 140 million tons of iron ore to China this year.
Meanwhile China, which is producing about half the world's steel, is investing in mining capacity of its own. Projects include mines in Australia, Africa and South America.
Mr Raffan doesn't think the additional Brazil's output, nor China's own investments, is on the minds of local resource project developers.
''I think everyone sees things through rose-coloured glasses at the moment," he said.
Sky-high hopes
BHP Billiton's chief executive officer Marius Kloppers reiterated his company's confidence in China's demand for resources holding up.
In a speech this week to the Lowy Institute, Mr Kloppers said China would build 50,000 skyscrapers over the next 20 years, or 600 times the number Sydney now has.
Also fuelling China's resource hunger will be further urbanisation, with the country expected to have 220 cities of more than one million people by 2030, compared with Europe's total of 35 now.
Such confidence in China's growth is helping to nudge iron ore prices higher after a drop of about a third last year.
Spot prices for iron ore recently climbed to $US104 a tonne, while a consensus of analysts polled by Bloomberg forecasts the contract price for iron ore - about $US60 a tonne before freight - to rise by 14 per cent next year.
While China's economic growth this year has surprised on the upside, some analysts are raising doubts about its reliance once massive state spending and directed lending subside.
Credit Suisse, a Swiss bank, points to signs that the economy is losing some momentum, comparing China's yearly industrial production rate with the PMI new orders index - a gauge of manufacturing activity.
China's industrial production rose 16.1 per cent in the year to October year-on-year, from 13.9 per cent the month before, according to the latest figures. The PMI new orders index, though, fell in October to 57.6 from 58.
''Going forward, if Chinese banks only lend at a RMB 200-250 billion ($32-40 billion) per month pace, we will see fixed asset investment growth slow, consistent with less support for commodity prices,'' said Credit Suisse analyst Damien Boey.
An export recovery may help China if its banks slow lending to avoid asset bubbles, he said. ''But certainly, growth will not be as good as it was post-first half stimulus,'' he said.
Flattening trajectory
Mine Life senior analyst Gavin Wendt said he's not as pessimistic on prices as some, but based on the influx of new mining projects, ''it's getting harder to see the same price run-ups.''
''The rising price trajectory is going to flatten off even as the demand continues to increase from China and India,'' he said.
The price for ore will move in a range between $US80-$US120 per tonne over the next couple of years, Mr Wendt said, easing in the long term to a $US80-$US100 range as new production comes on-stream.
Mr Wendt said the Chinese lining up to partner with Australian miners are trying to ensure price stability in the years to come by expanding sources of production as the Japanese did with coal beginning in the 1980s.
Macquarie view
The dim views don't accord with those of Macquarie Bank analyst Jim Lennon, Bloomberg News reported today.
Mr Lennon predicts global commodity demand will have a steady recovery next year, with China leading consumption.
China accounted for about 50 per cent of global commodity demand this year, up from about a third a year ago, Lennon said at a conference in Hong Kong.
Metal prices have rallied 81 per cent this year in London on Chinese purchases, and as a weaker dollar and expectations that the world is poised to recover from its worst recession since World War II stoked demand. Investors raised holdings in commodities to the highest levels in at least three years, BOfA Merrill Lynch Global Research said.
''The leap in demand for commodities in China this year has been quite staggering,'' Lennon said. ''You can see where these commodities are going by the increase in production in China of goods like autos.''
Steel production in China this year may jump to 570 million metric tons, up from about 500 million tons last year, Lennon said. Macquarie's forecast compares with the 565 million tons predicted by the China Iron & Steel Association yesterday.
czappone@fairfax.com.au
Business Day, with Bloomberg News
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5.53%
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St GeorgeBasic Home Loan
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segunda-feira, 9 de novembro de 2009
vale
copia de pesquisa do google, falando de nova mina da empresa.
Uma corrida pelo minério está ganhando contornos no Brasil depois da crise financeira mundial. O interesse por ativos do setor voltou a crescer, alimentado pelo apetite de siderúrgicas de todo o mundo, que querem reduzir custos de produção, e das próprias mineradoras, interessadas em expandir o seu negócio.
No centro dessa tendência está o município de Guanhães, no Vale do Rio Doce, onde a GME4, dona de ativos minerários em vários locais do país, descobriu uma nova fronteira mineral, com reservas estimadas em 400 milhões de toneladas em uma única mina. Só para comparar, a mina de Brucutu, da Vale, em São Gonçalo do Rio Abaixo, na Região Central de Minas, tem reservas de 730 milhões de toneladas de minério de ferro. O projeto de Guanhães está focado em 17 de um total de 157 áreas distribuídas em 30,5 mil hectares. “Os teores de ferro são superiores a 40%”, afirma o geólogo João Carlos Cavalcanti, sócio da GME4.
Além de explorar minério no município, a ideia é construir um mineroduto ligando a cidade a um porto que será instalado no Espírito Santo. Cavalcanti diz que ainda não há estimativas do investimento necessário para a empreitada, mas acredita que serão criados de 20 mil e 40 mil empregos na região. Só para comparar, Guanhães tem hoje cerca de 30 mil habitantes. Segundo ele, as vagas de trabalho serão geradas na construção de um minerotudo, de um ramal ferroviário e nas usinas de concentração e de pelotização de minério, sem contar a atração de empresas de prestação de serviço para o empreendimento.
“Estamos sendo procurados por grandes players mundiais do setor de mineração e siderurgia e devemos fechar esse e outros negócios até 26 de outubro”, revela Cavalcanti, que, considerado o geólogo mais rico do mundo, disputa com seu ex-sócio, Eike Batista, o título de brasileiro mais rico. A ideia é vender 80% das reservas para sócios investidores, mantendo participação de 20%. Quando diz que vai fechar negócio, ele se refere a Guanhães e a outros projetos da GME4 no país, como o do Piauí, que está sendo tocado pela subsidiária PI4. Com investimentos de US$ 800 milhões, quando estiver em operação, o empreendimento deverá responder por 20% do PIB do estado. O projeto de Guanhães é o segundo maior da GME4 no país, atrás apenas do de Piauí. “A dificuldade lá é logística. As reservas são de classe internacional, acima de 300 milhões de toneladas”, afirma o empresário.
Para o analista de investimentos em mineração da corretora SLW, Pedro Galdi, o aparecimento de novos ativos minerários vem “aguçando o apetite de muita gente”. Segundo ele, quando esse ativo é interessante, o dono não tem nem trabalho. “É só levantar uma bandeirinha que aparece um interessado em comprar”, brinca. De acordo com ele, esse movimento reflete uma situação especial da economia. “A crise afugentou muitos investimentos mas o pessoal já percebeu que o minério será necessário daqui a pouco. As siderúrgicas vão precisar dele para reduzir seus custos e as mineradoras para ampliar o leque de sua reserva. Além disso, hoje os preços estão em outra realidade, se comparados aos anteriores à crise, e isso também atrai compradores”, avalia.
O novo distrito minerário tem vocação para a produção de pelotas de minério como granulados, pellet-feed e sinter-feed. A fase agora é de prospecção. Os resultados finais são esperados para o fim do primeiro semestre do ano que vem. Só em investimentos em pesquisa, a GME4 já aplicou US$ 50 milhões, US$ 10 milhões dos quais em Minas. “Nessa fase, os valores não são grandes”, reconhece João Carlos Cavalcanti. Segundo ele, os investimentos mais pesados são feitos durante o desenvolvimento do projeto e a extração propriamente dita.
Em julho de 2008, foi descoberta, no município de Rio Pardo de Minas, de 28,2 mil habitantes, no Norte de Minas, uma jazida de minério de ferro com reserva estimada em 10 bilhões de toneladas. As reservas da área são equivalentes às do quadrilátero ferrífero mineiro, que abrange a região metropolitana e municípios do Vale do Aço como João Monlevade e Itabira.
Uma corrida pelo minério está ganhando contornos no Brasil depois da crise financeira mundial. O interesse por ativos do setor voltou a crescer, alimentado pelo apetite de siderúrgicas de todo o mundo, que querem reduzir custos de produção, e das próprias mineradoras, interessadas em expandir o seu negócio.
No centro dessa tendência está o município de Guanhães, no Vale do Rio Doce, onde a GME4, dona de ativos minerários em vários locais do país, descobriu uma nova fronteira mineral, com reservas estimadas em 400 milhões de toneladas em uma única mina. Só para comparar, a mina de Brucutu, da Vale, em São Gonçalo do Rio Abaixo, na Região Central de Minas, tem reservas de 730 milhões de toneladas de minério de ferro. O projeto de Guanhães está focado em 17 de um total de 157 áreas distribuídas em 30,5 mil hectares. “Os teores de ferro são superiores a 40%”, afirma o geólogo João Carlos Cavalcanti, sócio da GME4.
Além de explorar minério no município, a ideia é construir um mineroduto ligando a cidade a um porto que será instalado no Espírito Santo. Cavalcanti diz que ainda não há estimativas do investimento necessário para a empreitada, mas acredita que serão criados de 20 mil e 40 mil empregos na região. Só para comparar, Guanhães tem hoje cerca de 30 mil habitantes. Segundo ele, as vagas de trabalho serão geradas na construção de um minerotudo, de um ramal ferroviário e nas usinas de concentração e de pelotização de minério, sem contar a atração de empresas de prestação de serviço para o empreendimento.
“Estamos sendo procurados por grandes players mundiais do setor de mineração e siderurgia e devemos fechar esse e outros negócios até 26 de outubro”, revela Cavalcanti, que, considerado o geólogo mais rico do mundo, disputa com seu ex-sócio, Eike Batista, o título de brasileiro mais rico. A ideia é vender 80% das reservas para sócios investidores, mantendo participação de 20%. Quando diz que vai fechar negócio, ele se refere a Guanhães e a outros projetos da GME4 no país, como o do Piauí, que está sendo tocado pela subsidiária PI4. Com investimentos de US$ 800 milhões, quando estiver em operação, o empreendimento deverá responder por 20% do PIB do estado. O projeto de Guanhães é o segundo maior da GME4 no país, atrás apenas do de Piauí. “A dificuldade lá é logística. As reservas são de classe internacional, acima de 300 milhões de toneladas”, afirma o empresário.
Para o analista de investimentos em mineração da corretora SLW, Pedro Galdi, o aparecimento de novos ativos minerários vem “aguçando o apetite de muita gente”. Segundo ele, quando esse ativo é interessante, o dono não tem nem trabalho. “É só levantar uma bandeirinha que aparece um interessado em comprar”, brinca. De acordo com ele, esse movimento reflete uma situação especial da economia. “A crise afugentou muitos investimentos mas o pessoal já percebeu que o minério será necessário daqui a pouco. As siderúrgicas vão precisar dele para reduzir seus custos e as mineradoras para ampliar o leque de sua reserva. Além disso, hoje os preços estão em outra realidade, se comparados aos anteriores à crise, e isso também atrai compradores”, avalia.
O novo distrito minerário tem vocação para a produção de pelotas de minério como granulados, pellet-feed e sinter-feed. A fase agora é de prospecção. Os resultados finais são esperados para o fim do primeiro semestre do ano que vem. Só em investimentos em pesquisa, a GME4 já aplicou US$ 50 milhões, US$ 10 milhões dos quais em Minas. “Nessa fase, os valores não são grandes”, reconhece João Carlos Cavalcanti. Segundo ele, os investimentos mais pesados são feitos durante o desenvolvimento do projeto e a extração propriamente dita.
Em julho de 2008, foi descoberta, no município de Rio Pardo de Minas, de 28,2 mil habitantes, no Norte de Minas, uma jazida de minério de ferro com reserva estimada em 10 bilhões de toneladas. As reservas da área são equivalentes às do quadrilátero ferrífero mineiro, que abrange a região metropolitana e municípios do Vale do Aço como João Monlevade e Itabira.
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